Fantasy Football Potential BUSTS

 We have awhile to go until week 1 of the NFL season and around the same length until most people will do their fantasy football drafts. However, we are starting early! Previously we outlined 10 potential draft steals and now we are going to give you 10 draft bust candidates. All of this is subject to change as the season gets closer but for early predictions here we go. This list is going to be based off of how good a player is + where they are being projected to go. If a player we don't like very much is projected to go very high, we will call them out on this list.

(Also, this is based off of ESPN fantasy projections and rankings and just like last time, these are based off the PPR scoring ranks)

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers

Current Projection: Rds. 3-4 (WR16 currently on ESPN)

This is the easiest one for me on the list so far. Nothing makes sense about Johnson being ranked this high right now. Projected to be a top 3-4 round pick, Johnson has done nothing over the course of his young career to prove that he could be that good. This is a rounds 8+ player minimum. Not only is he the WR3 on his own team, but he isn't even good at being a WR3. He struggles with a ton of drops and he has no crazy attributes that jump out to you. The fact that he is being projected to go higher than proven former All-Pro players like Julio Jones or Adam Thielen or even his own teammates like Juju Smith or Chase Claypool is insane to me. If you find yourself taking Diontae Johnson early, you could be in for a rough year. Autodraft teams are going to end up with this guy and I will feel bad. 

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys

Current Projection: Rds. 1-2 (RB6 currently on ESPN)

This is not going to be the guy you wanna take in round 1. Someone is likely to do it in your league, and they could be a sucker. Without Dak Prescott and an elite offensive line to run behind for the first time in his career last season, Zeke Elliott looked like a shell of himself. He was awful in terms of fantasy and just kept disappointing every week. Now that the Cowboys are healthier and Dak will be back, Zeke will be a popular first round draft pick, however, I expect more of the same from him. Dallas finally doesn't have an elite O-line like it did for Zeke's first few seasons and then we saw how he did without it last year. Even if Dak is there, I don't think it will matter as much as some might think for Zeke. Along with this, Elliott has never been an asset in the receiving game and will likely continue that trend this season. I would not waste a top pick on Elliott this year. 

Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens

Current Projection: Rds. 5+ (TE4 currently on ESPN)

Tight end is always a position up for so much debate. How high do you draft the elite ones? Is Kelce worth your top selection? My stance on it is that you should only take one early if it's an elite option and there is no better talent at more important positions available. This season, I think there is Darren Waller and George Kittle joining Travis Kelce as the elite TEs in fantasy. Then there is a lot of inconsistency. One guy that is ranked pretty highly and always seems to be is Mark Andrews. He is NOT worth drafting as high as you will likely see him ranked. Again, Kittle, Kelce, and Waller are the only 3 worth even looking at early on in drafts. Once they are gone, I probably would take bench players over the next TE options. Andrews is ranked right around the Waller and Kittle range. He is not worthy of this. The Ravens run a crazy run heavy offense with a QB not as capable of going deep as others. Andrews won't even have the same amount of targets as last year with Sammy Watkins and first round pick Rashod Bateman entering the fold. Andrews is ranked very high for someone who won't put up many points consistently. Plus he is ranked higher on ESPN right now than guys like TJ Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Noah Fant, Robert Tonyan, and even more who I like much better. Don't be the guy who panicks when the clock runs down and goes with a "TE1" at the last second. 

AJ Brown, WR, Titans

Current Projection: Rds. 1-3 (WR5 currently on ESPN)

Don't get me wrong, I love AJ Brown as a player and think he is also a quality fantasy pick, but I'm not liking where he has been ranked as of late. Brown is coming off his second NFL season in which he easily established himself as the Titans WR1 and one of the brightest up and coming pass catchers in football. Now the overhype is coming in. He is currently ranked ahead of players like Michael Thomas, DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, and many many more. ESPN has him as a top 5 fantasy receiver. He is just not there yet. The Titans run heavy offense does not benefit him either nor does the fact that the Titans basically have 0 other pass catchers on the team after losing Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith this off-season. Teams will easily zero in on Brown and double team him with ease. I like Brown in the 3rd or 4th round, but as a top 5 receiver and potentially your first pick, I do not. He has some bust potential with the limited talent around him to help him out.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

Current Projection: 3-5 (RB20 currently on ESPN)

After a great rookie season, Jacobs was a very hyped up fantasy pick going into last season and to start the year he proved he was worth the pick. As the year went on though, Jacobs stop producing as much and then the Raiders decided to do the unthinkable and spend big time money on Kenyan Drake to come pair up with Josh Jacobs. This absolutely tanks Jacobs' draft stock. Drake is a speedier, home run hitting type RB, with pass catching potential. He will steal a lot of reps from Jacobs. The Raiders also dismantled their pretty solid offensive line for little reason and so Jacobs will have to fight that as well. As a rounds 3-5 projected player, Jacobs is not worth that high of a pick when he has a major bust chance. 

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

Current Projection: Rds. 5-6+ (QB12 currently on ESPN)

ESPN ranks has actually done a pretty good job with ranking Watson overall, but that doesn't change leagues where QBs fly off the board quickly having Watson gone by round 5. If you are going to take a QB super high, don't let it be Watson. We know his unbelievable talent and scrambling ability makes him an amazing fantasy QB when on the field, but his future is uncertain. With legal issues murking things up this off-season, we still do not have full clarity on the situation. A suspension or something of that nature could pop up for Watson at any moment and leave fantasy owners scrambling for a new QB. That is not what you want for the QB you just drafted so early. To make matters worse, even if Watson plays, his situation is grim. The Texans have literally nothing on offense for Watson to throw to. Literally nothing. Watson is an unbelievable talent but at the end of the day is simply not worth taking as early as you might want to due to all the questions surrounding him. You are better off with a Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott...

Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers

Current Projection: Rounds 6+ (RB28 currently on ESPN)

After the first 4-5 rounds when all of the surefire stars are gone along with the bellcow RBs, Raheem Mostert might seem like a really nice pick in that range. Don't fall for it. Every season when we think we know the Niners' starting back who is going to get the carriers, we are wrong. Kyle Shannahan does not rely on one back. The Niners always use a committee approach. Mostert has been electric in real life and on fantasy rosters at times over the past 2 seasons but has also been injured a ton. Due to those 2 factors I just said and the fact that the Niners spent an early round pick on Ohio State back Trey Sermon, Mostert is not worth a top 9 round pick in my opinion. Sermon should eventually become the lead ball-carrier for SF. Don't reach on Mostert, he will disappoint. 

Ravens D/ST

Current Projection: Rounds 10+ (D/ST1 currently on ESPN)

It might seem funny to have a defense on this busts list, but we are trying to give you a variety of all the positions in fantasy so you don't waste your picks. The Ravens D has a chance to be a fantasy bust. ESPN has them ranked as their number 1 fantasy defense right now. I'm not sure why. To name a few, the Steelers, Bucs, Football Team, Rams, Colts, and maybe even the Browns have better defenses than the Ravens. Being the first one to take a defense in fantasy always seems like a glamorous move but if it is the Ravens, you will be a fool. They aren't one of those defenses stacked with talent and they face a tough schedule. I'm not sure why you would take them over one of those other defensive units that I mentioned earlier. I haven't done my full research yet to crown who I think the best fantasy D is heading into next season, but I can assure you the Ravens will not be in the top 5. 

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns 

Current Projection: Rds. 5-8 (WR33 currently on ESPN)

With the Browns having a tremendously good off-season and gaining a ton of hype as they look to rise into one of the league's best teams, a wildcard in the mix for that team is none other than OBJ. The former rookie of the year and superstar in New York has been nothing but a bust in his multiple years in Cleveland. When he hasn't been injured (which has been pretty rare) he hasn't done much in Cleveland anyway. Despite this, OBJ still gets the hype every year and this year will probably be no different. We just haven't seen him form a connection with Baker Mayfield or be able to stay healthy. OBJ is one bad season/injury riddled season away from being considered the next Todd Gurley. A lot of people will expect a major bounceback this year but I just don't see it happening. It's not worth reaching on him to be your WR2 when the WR position is deeper than ever this year and there are so many better choices than Beckham. 

Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings

Current Projection: Rds. 3-4 (WR17 currently on ESPN)

While I mentioned Thielen's name earlier when talking about how outrageous it was that he was ranked lower than Diontae Johnson, it doesn't mean I'm confident in Thielen as a player right now. He has obviously been one of the league's best WRs of the past 3-4 years but I see his prime slowly winding down. A projected 3-4 round pick, this is a guy you will expect to be your WR1 or WR2 with high upside and will get you a minimum of 10 points on an average week. I don't think Thielen is in this range anymore. He played his best football out of the slot which he no longer does. He is getting up there in age. Justin Jefferson is the next big thing at WR and is probably Minnesota's WR1 already. Kirk Cousins is likely to regress this season as well. The offense is also focused on Dalvin Cook. So many reasons not to draft Thielen. I like Thielen as a player but I think he is set up for a major regression year and shouldn't be a player you really consider drafting.