Rookie Rankings Pre-Season Edition: What Top 5 Pick Falls Out of Top 10?
Probably the best thing about each new NFL season is the rookies. There is so much hype and intrigue with some of the top new playmakers coming into our league each year. Today we are going to be ranking the top 20 rookies heading into week 1 of the season. We will update these rankings every few weeks so you will be able to see who is doing what. This first list going into the next one is going to see some major change as right now it is merely off projections and pre-season play but when the next list comes out we will have seen real life NFL games with rookies playing to determine these things. Here we go.
1. Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars
While he hasn't been the best out of all the rookie QBs this pre-season, I don't think it will matter too much. You really can't determine much off of the pre-season and Lawrence is the best prospect we've seen in a decade, maybe more. He hasn't been amazing in the pre-season but at the same time he has not been bad. When we revisit these rankings in a few weeks it will be interesting to see if he is still the top dog.
2. Zach Wilson, Quarterback, New York Jets
Maybe it's a little lame going with the top two picks in the top two slots but for now they are the only rookie QBs that have been named as week 1 starters which gives them a major leg up over their competitors. Wilson struggled a little early in camp but has seemed to turn it around as he recently played really well against Green Bay in the pre-season and looks to be as advertised.
3. Najee Harris, Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers
This could come as a shock to some, but Harris is going to be so good right away as a rookie. It's almost surprising to me how little he is being talked about. He is going to have an Ezekiel Elliott type year 1 with the Steelers in my opinion. He is going to be the focal point of this seemingly boring offense. He will get a ton of carries right out of the gate and in Pittsburgh check-down heavy offense, he is going to be a major threat with his elite receiving ability. Najee Harris might very well be number 1 when we come back to this list in a couple weeks.
When Dallas first drafted Parsons, I didn't quite understand the pick. They seemed so stacked at linebacker and they could have gone with other positions. As camp has come and gone and the pre-season is in full swing, I'm now seeing why they drafted Parsons. They view him as a generational talent at the LB spot and have him listed as a starter over all of their other LBs who they've had for years including the talented Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander-Esch. Parsons has been impressive in small samples during the pre-season and the fact that Dallas is so confident about him and has made him such a big part of their defense right away tells me everything I need to know. Parsons is going to be a tackle machine for the Cowboys and likely be the front runner out of the gate for DROY.
5. Kyle Pitts, Tight End, Atlanta Falcons
For a prospect as insanely talented and generational as Pitts, the talk for him heading into his rookie season has been somewhat quiet. A lot of this is probably because he hasn't been playing in the pre-season but that really doesn't matter. Atlanta is being smart and making sure he doesn't get hurt playing in meaningless contests. Once Pitts hits the field, the talk will be all back. A receiver in a tight end's body, Pitts has the tools to become one of the greatest tight ends we've ever seen. In Atlanta's high powered, air raid type offense, he could go crazy right out of the gates as Matt Ryan's no. 2 option.
You know a corner is going to be good when you actually see them making plays early on. Some of the league's best corners are really not seen often because of how good they are at their craft. They lock down receivers so well that they aren't even getting targeted. Jaire Alexander is a great example of that. Surtain is already seeming like the rare, flashy but elite corner type. He has made a number of plays for Denver in the pre-season including a beautifully timed pick 6. He has given us Richard Sherman / Jalen Ramsey type vibes from his play thus far. Don't be shocked if we see a Marshon Lattimore like rookie season from Surtain II.
7. DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Philadelphia Eagles
Just like last season, we have another loaded WR rookie class coming into the league this year. One guy who fell a little in the draft but is already looking like the best WR from the class is none other than the most recent Heisman winner DeVonta Smith. "Smitty" has been impressing at Eagles camp and even has a few highlight 'routes' in the pre-season in which he made Patriot defenders look silly. Smith might be the Eagles WR1 from day 1 and he already has previous experience with Jalen Hurts who was his former college QB. Smith is set up for a monster rookie year and just because he was the third WR off the board doesn't mean he is going to be third best. See Justin Jefferson from last year...
8. Justin Fields, Quarterback, Chicago Bears
Fields would quite possibly be the number 1 player on this list if not for Andy Dalton. The Bears have not wavered on their stance that Dalton would be the team's opening day QB1 since drafting Fields. Dalton is set to start week 1 with the daunting task at hand of facing the LA Rams' ferocious defense. A horrible outing week 1 could be enough for Fields to be hoisted into the starting lineup by week 2. Fields is one of, if not the, most NFL ready QBs from this deep draft class. He has been really good in the pre-season for the Bears and has the world waiting on his debut. His dual-threat skillset is going to be big at the next level.
9. Jaelan Phillips, EDGE Rusher, Miami Dolphins
If you read this website a lot, you know what I think of Jaelan Phillips. I'm a huge fan of his and have him as my pre-season DROY pick. A lot can change I know and he has been dealing with injury throughout Dolphins camp, but when he steps on the field, he is going to show everyone why he was a first round draft pick. He is maybe the only guy from this class I can see have double digit sacks as a rookie. In a weak year for edge rushing prospects, Phillips sort of stands out from the pack in a way. If he stays on the field, just watch for the impact he will have.
Williams would probably be in the top 5 here if there wasn't some uncertainty to his role to begin the season. Williams was drafted into a situation that sees him likely to be in a big time RB committee with Melvin Gordon. However, you do not trade up to the third pick of the second round to take an RB if you are completely satisfied with your current guy. You just don't. Therefore, Williams is likely to become the full-time starter at some point during the season. I could see it happening earlier than many believe. Williams is a stud, downhill power runner who I see having similar success early on like Cleveland's Nick Chubb.
11. Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins
A lot of people are going to be shocked to see Waddle and DeVonta Smith over the WR drafted before both of them. We will get to that in a minute. All I want to say here is how electric Jaylen Waddle is. Drafted so highly for the reason that Miami sees him as a potential Tyreek Hill type of star on their offense. Waddle is so fast and makes such quick cuts and decisions that he is going to be tough to contain at the next level. The reason he's lower than one might think is because we do not know about Tua Tagovailoa right now. If Tua takes a jump and is able to air it out, Waddle is going to go off. If Tua is the same Tua we know from last year, it might be hard for Waddle to have a major impact right out of the gate.
A mid-first round pick who I loved all throughout the pre-draft process and who is more little known than a lot of these guys so far in the rankings is Jamin Davis, and he is going to be incredible out of the gate as a rookie. He got drafted into the perfect situation. The Washington defense is one of the league's best and he is going to be cleaning up tackles from behind that elite d-line headlined by Chase Young and Jonathan Allen. Davis is going to rack up a ton of tackles as a rookie. A popular comparison for Davis has been Colts All-Pro LB and former DROY Darius Leonard. If Davis has Leonard like success as a rookie, he too could take home ROY honors.
13. Jaycee Horn, Cornerback, Carolina Panthers
It's weird how little Jaycee Horn has been talked about since being drafted. After all, he was the first defensive player off the board back in April. The son of former Saints legendary wideout Joe Horn might be just as good as his dad, but at a different position. Horn is in certain ways very similar to perennial All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey. Similar measurements. Sticky press-coverage. And of course, trash talk for days. Horn slots in instantly as Carolina's CB1 and is going to face off against opposing team's top WR each week. We are going to learn pretty quickly if Horn is the real deal and deserves a top 5 spot here or if he is just another average, overdrafted corner.
The fall finally ends for the 5th overall pick in the draft. After the Bengals made the gutsy call taking Chase over protection for their franchise QB Joe Burrow, things seemed to be in order for the Bengals. That was at least until training camp begun...Chase has reportedly been awful in camp and has been dropping passes left and right. There is now a pending case against Chase for beating his girlfriend. Not a good look for Chase or the Bengals. We know the talent Chase possesses, but now we have no idea what this season is going to look like for him. He could prove us all wrong and quickly emerge as that elite WR1 the Bengals were looking for. He also could not see a single snap this season. That is why he is so low on the top 20 rookies for now. Only time will tell on the rest.
15. Trey Lance, Quarterback, San Fransisco 49ers
If Lance was starting week 1, he'd probably be in the top 3 of these rankings. Sadly for the NFL world, that is not the case. The exciting but raw dual-threat QB is likely not going to see the field for a bit. The Niners seem content with Jimmy Garopollo as their starting QB for as much of, if not all, of this season if possible. Lance has a massive arm and exciting rushing ability, but his time is not here just yet. When he gets the starting job, he will see a massive rise in the rankings. For now, 15 is good considering he's not even playing.
The first non-first rounder to crack the top 20. All we've heard from Jets camp about Elijah Moore is raves. Moore has been consistently impressing day in and day out. Him and Zach Wilson appear to have already developed quite a good connection. Every evaluator that I've heard speak on Moore just goes on and on about how special he is going to be. Titans star WR AJ Brown even spoke out about how he thinks Moore is a BETTER receiver than he is. That's a huge vote of confidence coming from a top 10 WR in the NFL right now. If Elijah Moore proves his worth right from the start in week 1, he could be sitting inside the top 10 in no time on the rookie ranks.
17. Penei Sewell, Offensive Tackle, Detroit Lions
I'm admitting that this could be pretty low for one of the best OL prospects we've seen in a minute, but I couldn't put him ahead of some of these stud players without really seeing how he fares in a real life regular season game first. I have no doubt that Sewell will quickly establish himself as one of the best young offensive lineman in the game from the moment he steps onto Ford field in week 1, but for now, I'm not putting an O-lineman higher than most star QBs and WRs.
Marshall was one of the guys I absolutely loved going into the draft. I consistently mocked him as a mid to late first rounder (mostly to the Ravens or Titans). When he wasn't drafted in round 1 and fell to late round 2, I was shocked. Marshall is a Walmart DK Metcalf in my opinion. He doesn't have the same strength that Metcalf possesses but he has the height and speed. Marshall has the perfect skillset to be a matchup nightmare at the next level and the Panthers got a steal with him. Though it's just pre-season, Marshall has probably been the number 1 WR of the pre-season. He has killed it each week and looks like he will contribute as the team's WR3 right away.
19. Mac Jones, Quarterback, New England Patriots
Mac Jones is in the same boat as Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Jones has actually been really impressive for the Pats in the pre-season. He's shown great poise and accuracy from the pocket. He has given New England a tough choice for their week 1 starter but all signs still point to it being Cam Newton. Of course, with a competition this close and a rookie first round QB, we expect to see Jones start at some point this season. I think after Fields, Jones will probably be the next rookie QB to get a start. He starts at 19, but could rise drastically very soon.
20. Kwity Paye, EDGE Rusher, Indianapolis Colts
One of the best overall athletes from this draft class, Paye brings crazy speed and juice off the edge. Something the Colts have been missing from their already elite defense. Paye has impressed at Colts camp and in the pre-season and is probably going to be a week 1 starter and big contributor.
JUST MISSED: Odafe Oweh (EDGE, Ravens), Zaven Collins (LB, Cardinals), Michael Carter (RB, Jets), Rashawn Slater (OT, Chargers), Asante Samuel (CB, Chargers), Joe Tryon (EDGE, Bucs), Jevon Holland (S, Dolphins), Richie Grant (S, Falcons), Trey Sermon (RB, 49ers), Davis Mills (QB, Texans), D'Wayne Eskridge (WR, Seahawks), Deommodore Lenoir (CB, 49ers)
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