Top 10 Defensive Rookie of the Year Candidates for 2022-23: #1 Pick Outside the Top 5?

 After ranking my early top 10 candidates for OROY the other day, it's now time to do the same on the other side of the ball. While it felt like almost a bit of a crapshoot for offense, defense does not feel the same. This was a very good defensive class and it was hard to pick the 10 best guys (with so many options), let alone rank them. This is obviously so early and hard to figure anything out, but here are the way I have things stacking up early on.

10. Jordan Davis, Defensive Tackle, Philadelphia Eagles

This is all based on how quickly Jordan Davis can develop. Davis was not selected at 13 due to necessarily what he is now, but almost as a projection for just how good he could be. We all know it, but Davis was probably the freakiest athlete in this year's draft. I don't think we've really ever seen a DT so big that can move as well as this guy can. He profiles in instantly as an elite run defender and someone who can just eat up blocks to free up other defenders, but his enamoring potential is why we have him cracking the top 10. If Davis can develop into a pass rusher at the next level, he is going to be such a problem. That size and strength bearing down on QBs at THAT speed is potentially game-changing. Jordan Davis could be a unicorn prospect, I'm not sure if he will put it all together so fast, but in the event that he does, I have to include him in these ranks. 

9. Nakobe Dean, Linebacker, Philadelphia Eagles

Back-to-back Eagles to start off these rankings. Dean was a third round pick, but I'm still not completely sure why. We know there were some injury concerns, but he's reportedly healthy right now and his health wasn't an issue during his dominant final season at Georgia. While he may be small for an LB, he makes up for it in every way possible. He is going to slot right in as potentially the LB1 on the Eagles' depth chart. Dean has sideline-to-sideline speed that is going to translate to the next level along with elite run support skills. He was the captain of the title-winning Bulldogs' defense and there's no reason to think he can't do the same in Philly. If he plays and starts the whole season, he's going to put up some huge numbers. Over 100 tackles, 4+ sacks, 2+ picks, and multiple pass deflections and forced fumbles feels very plausible. If he stays healthy throughout the year, he could have a Devin White level impact in year 1. Don't count him out of this race just because he was a third rounder!

8. Travon Walker, Edge Rusher, Jacksonville Jaguars

How is the no. 1 overall pick in the draft at #8?! Hear me out! Similarly to Jordan Davis, Travon Walker (his college teammate) was not drafted so high based on what he already is. Walker, too, has freak potential. That is why he was the top pick in the draft. He has rare versatility to play anywhere on the DL and even drop back into shallow coverage. While that potential and athleticism is there, it's going to likely take some time for him to pop. He was mis-used at Georgia and is going to have to learn to play more to his strengths in the NFL (which won't be hard but may be an adjustment). People are going to be ready to write him off as a major bust if he doesn't produce instantly, but he is going to need time. However, his potential is so high and he was the top pick that he HAD to be on this list. I think there's a chance that he's awesome right out of the gate, but his ranking at 8 reflects my beliefs that it is going to take time for him to develop in Duval. 

7. Sauce Gardner, Cornerback, New York Jets

This might be another controversial ranking. Hear me out again. While I stand by my belief that Sauce Gardner is/was the best player from the 2022 draft class, that doesn't mean I have him as the favorite to be DROY. There are different types of corners out there. Ball hawk corners (think JC Jackson). Strictly zone corners. Then there are man up island corners. Those are the rarest of them and not many great ones exist in the league. That is what the Jets hope they are getting with Sauce. A corner who can man up with anyone in the league and completely erase them from the game. Think of prime Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis, current Jalen Ramsey or Jaire Alexander. Gardner has the looks of one of those corners. While they are obviously the best corners in the game, they are not the ones who win the awards. The ones that take home the hardware are guys like Trevon Diggs who may let up tons of yardage but they make up for it with many INTs. Gardner will get a few picks, but he's mostly gonna be a guy shutting down a side of the field. While I expect him to be elite, I don't expect his statline to reflect that, just like Jalen Ramsey. Teams will be scared to test him which shows his skill, but the voters for DROY will likely take a guy with huge numbers. Sauce is going to be a problem, but it would be hard for me to see him winning DROY for these reasons.

6. Jermaine Johnson, Edge Rusher, New York Jets

Back-to-back Eagles to start the list and now back-to-back Jets in the middle of it. While Jermaine Johnson was a likely top 10 talent in the class, he somehow fell to the Jets at 26 who scooped him up with glee and will now reap the benefits. Johnson is one of the most pro ready players in the entire class. He was a double digit sack man last year during his senior season and then we saw him play better than anyone at the Senior Bowl. Now he takes his talents to the talentED Jets defensive line which he should feast off of. Carl Lawson, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams, and more. Now Johnson is in the fold. Opposite of Lawson and Williams, he is going to make an instant impact with his refined pass rushing skills and power. I could foresee 10+ sacks as a rookie which would instantly give him a great shot at bringing home the DROY award. Watch out for this guy in Gotham. 

5. Devin Lloyd, Linebacker, Jacksonville Jaguars

As we enter the top 5 we see our third team with more than one player in the ranks. I am a huge Devin Lloyd fan and the rest of the league is about to become one too. The comparison that keeps getting thrown around with him is Darius Leonard, and I completely agree. A big linebacker who is faster than he looks, tackles violently, can blitz at an elite level, is awesome in pass coverage and in run support. Lloyd is all of that already. He stuffed the stat sheet last season for the Utes and will look to do it again right out of the gate in Jacksonville. I have to say, the Jags are building a great front 7. Walker and Josh Allen obviously, but then they are also pairing Lloyd with FA addition Foye Oluokun who is a great LB as well. By the end of his rookie season, I expect for Lloyd to be entrenched in as the LB1 of this team. He is going to one up however good Nakobe Dean is going to do with Philly. We saw Leonard will the DROY award a few years back and now Lloyd (who is a better prospect than Darius was coming into the league) is going to have a really good chance at doing the same.

4. Derek Stingley Jr., Cornerback, Houston Texans

While I feel as if the Texans were not a great landing spot for the ultra talented Stingley, it usually does not matter with the CB position. While Stingley is a completely different player than Sauce Garnder (and a little bit worse in my opinion), I like him a lot better in the chances of winning DROY. While Sauce won't be all over your screen while he plays the position at an elite level, Stingley will be. This is one of the best ball-hawking corners I've ever seen come out of college. Seriously. Ask anyone, his freshman season was one for the ages. Stingley has shutdown potential, but right out of the gate he is going to pick off a lot of passes and break up even more. The Texans' defense is not very good and teams will look to test the bigshot young buck Stingley right away. They will be disappointed when they realize just how great the former National Champ is. I think Stingley has future All-Pro potential, and with his ball-hawking skill, I think he's got one of the best chances at winning DROY this season. 

3. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge Rusher, New York Giants

Kayvon Thibodeaux is going to make a lot of teams feel sorry that they passed on him. I personally thought he was the best rusher in this class, but teams like to knitpick going into the draft and that's why he saw himself be the third DE off the board last Thursday night. KT is going to be a gamechanger right away in New York. While he disappeared at times during his career at Oregon, it's going to be a lot harder to see him do that while rushing opposite of another stud in Leonard Williams on the other side. Teams will not know how to gameplan for these two freaks off either side, leading to a lot of one on ones for Thibodeaux to take advantage of with his sheer athleticism and bend off of the edge. Like Johnson, I can see Thibodeaux having a 10+ sack season that puts him right in the driver's seat for DROY. Health is the obvious concern with him and so I put him at no. 3 (though I do think he obviously has a really good shot at winning the award).

2. Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Baltimore Ravens

Micah Parsons and Derwin James made me do it. While we've also seen a number of major busts with the "versatile, do everything, chess-piece" label, I don't believe Hamilton will be one of them. This was a perfect landing spot for him. He comes into a winning culture with one of the most established front offices in the sport who know how to get the most out of their players. He will play alongside stud young safety Marcus Williams. The Ravens have so much talent on their defense that Hamilton will be able to really be used all over as a chess piece like he's best at. I just think of how good that Baltimore D already is and how Hamilton is just going to add another layer to it. He will play centerfielder back deep for them and knock down passes. He will play LB and force fumbles. He will blitz and get sacks. This guy is going to be an all-around nightmare and I think it makes his chances of winning DROY extremely high. I truly don't believe he's the next Isaiah Simmons...he's Derwin James (BUT TALLER!)

1. Aidan Hutchinson, Edge Rusher, Detroit Lions

While this may not be the exciting pick, I can't bet against Aidan Hutchinson right now to be the DROY. I love Hamilton and Thibodeaux and Stingley's chances, but as of now, I can't put them higher than Hutchinson, who feels like a sure bet to be great. The no. 2 overall pick in the draft, Hutchinson is a high floor player with a lower ceiling than a guy like Thibodeaux, but not by much. He was so productive at Michigan last season (14 sacks) and it's going to translate right away. He does not take a night off, and that is what Lions' HC Dan Campbell is going to love about him. A lot of people compare Hutch to the Bosa brothers, and while I don't think he's quite on their level, he's close. This guy is a lock for 8+ sacks as a rookie with a ceiling of maybe even 14+. If he gets a crazy amount of sacks and pressures right out of the gate, he's going to be in the driver's seat from the first hutt of the year. I like Hutchinson right now as my favorite to win DROY, but it's insanely close...and this is before the players even get to playing..!