Top 10 Offensive Rookie of the Year Candidates for 2022-23: Third Rounder above Drake London?!

 The draft has now been over for a couple of days and we've all had some time to digest what went down. For what feels like the second straight season, there is no overwhelming favorite at this current moment for Offensive Rookie of the Year (like there was in a year with a guy like Saquon Barkley or Joe Burrow) for example. Today we rank our very early top 10 offensive rookie of the year candidates from worst to best based on how good the players is and what situation they've landed in (that's the big difference doing this after the draft) when it's not based on just pure talent.

10. Skyy Moore, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs

Kicking off the top 10 is none other than the Chiefs' steal of a late second round pick Skyy Moore. Moore was a pre-draft major riser and some even believed he'd go in the late first round. That wasn't the case for the electric after the catch Moore who barely slipped into the second round. He couldn't be happier about the fall. Bypassing the worst QB situations in the league, Moore fell right into the lap of Patrick Mahomes who is probably the best QB in the sport. With so much turnover in the KC WR corps, Moore has a major chance to compete for a starting role for week 1. If Moore can either become a top 3 WR by week 1 or work his way into a big role early (which I fully expect him to do one of these things), he is going to be a stud. This could become Mahomes' favorite wideout nearly instantly. We know anyone who is a big target in the KC offense is worth watching for some kind of honor, so Moore could have a decent outside shot at taking home the hardware. 

9. Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints

What does Saints' QB Jameis Winston love to do more than anything? If you said throw picks you are wrong! If you said go deep you are right! While it does result in an INT more times than not, the New Orleans QB loves to throw it deep, and one of the best deep threats in a couple of years in Chris Olave who is heading to the Big Easy. This is a match made in heaven and Olave is going to thrive. He's an amazing route runner and so good at getting open 30+ yards downfield. Jameis Winston is going to find him early and often in his career, especially if Michael Thomas misses anymore time. I could see a scenario where Olave can hit nearly 1000 yards and 10 TDs if everything goes well. While he's likely be the WR2 in his offense, he will get a ton of production. Olave has a good shot at OROY. 

8. Breece Hall, Running Back, New York Jets

If Michael Carter (the RB) wasn't around in the NYJ backfield, Hall would likely be the no. 1 candidate for ROY here. Unfortunately for Hall, he is, but even with Carter in the fold, I can see a real path for Breece to winning rookie of the year. Hall wasn't the best RB in college football last season, but he has the best skillset of any in the class and thus was the first one off the board. He is a patient and agile, through the tackles runner who is also an elite threat out of the backfield in the receiving game. Dual threat backs are highly coveted in today's NFL and Hall is going to be an asset. While he will likely split reps w/Carter to begin, I see him eventually taking over to be the feature back. Hall could find himself an 1000+ yard season with another 300 or more yards receiving and 10+ total TDs. I'm not predicting it, but he's such a skilled player and he really fits the Jets offense. He could take the league by storm en route to a ROY win. 

7. Drake London, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons

Some might be shocked that I have the odds on favorite to win ROY all the way down at 7. I can see why some might think it's crazy to have the first WR off the board all the way down here at 7. Hear me out. While I love Drake London and think he was probably the best wideout in the class (he or Jameson Williams), the situation he was drafted to does not do him any favors. With Calvin Ridley suspended this season, he is pretty much all they have at WR. While that might sound good for in terms of having a dominant rookie season, I don't think it is for THIS team. Marcus Mariota is going to be throwing the ball. His arm is not renowned for being good. Unicorn TE Kyle Pitts is also in the offense and will command a large target share and redzone looks, where London tends to feast as well. As much as I love London and think he has a good shot of developing into the next sort of Mike Evans type of player in the league, I'm not sure if year 1 will be where he does so. I could be very wrong, but this is how I feel right now.

6. Matt Corral, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers

After putting London at 7, many might be furious that I then put a third round "developmental" QB prospect ahead of the 8th overall pick in the draft. This is an easy one to explain. While I think Corral was probably the 3rd or 4th best QB in the class and he didn't go until round 3, his situation is incredibly beneficial to him getting early career play time. Sam Darnold is the other QB on the roster and he is TERRIBLE. This is going to be a QB competition from the get go and I really don't believe Darnold is going to beat out the tough and elusive Corral who has a live arm. I just don't. I have a good feeling Corral is going to start week 1, or if not then, likely by week 4. QBs are the most common winners of OROY for good reason. They touch the ball on every offensive play. I see Corral and Kenny Pickett as the only two QBs from this class who have a relatively good chance of starting week 1 or really at all this season. With that being said, Corral shoots up the list to no. 6 as he will obviously get so much playing time with Carolina if he starts. The offense around him is quite good as well. This is a dark horse for the award that I really like (hammer the bet while you can, it's at +2200 on most sites as we speak).

5. Christian Watson, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers

Like these last two names on the rankings tell us, situation is EVERYTHING. While I had Watson as a first round graded prospect, he was well below London, Olave, and all the others that went in round 1 (outside of Jahan Dotson). However, he landed in a very opportune situation. The Packers' WR room was desolate heading into the draft, and it remained that way after round 1. However to open round 2, they moved up to snag the 6'5 beast Christian Watson. Watson is going to enter Green Bay as the likely WR1 instantly. The WR1 who will catch balls from the back-to-back reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers. He also will have the luxury of offensive genius HC Matt LaFleur calling the plays and moving him around. Watson is going to be a MAJOR contributor from the opening snap. It wouldn't shock me if he went for 100 yards and a TD in his first ever game. Watson is going to get so many looks and opportunities from Aaron Rodgers in his rookie year and very well could be the rookie of the year when it is all said and done. I'm so serious here. 

4. Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, New York Jets

The second Jet to make this list. It's rare that even one Jets player makes some kind of top 10 list usually, but that shows how good this rookie class for Gang Green is. Garrett Wilson was the second receiver taken in this year's draft and for very good reason. He is good at everything. He's got great hands, an awesome route runner, great deep threat, and elite speed. He has the makings of another do-it-all WR1 in the league. Like Watson, Wilson is going to step right into his team's WR1 role. While Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are around, they are more of WR2/slot guys and will concede their higher roles to Wilson who is sure to demand the main target share. We saw Moore have great success in his rookie season in the NYJ offense, that should be a precursor to Wilson having an even better year. Zach Wilson is still finding his standing in the NFL as a young QB and having such a playmaker like Garrett Wilson is going to be huge for him. Wilson has a great shot at getting over 1000 yards as a rookie.

3. Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans

The most shocking moment of the 2022 NFL draft was when the Titans suddenly moved star young receiver AJ Brown to the Eagles in exchange for the no. 18 overall pick in the draft. With that pick, they selected Treylon Burks from Arkansas who they hope can slot right into the starting lineup and be an immediate replacement for Brown (who is younger and cheaper). I'm not sure if he's going to be able to do that right away, but he could be very good right out of the gate as a rookie. Treylon Burks is not your typical first round wideout. He's huge. Built like a running back, Burks is 6'3 and over 220 pounds. He runs with great speed but also sheer power. If he gets into the open field, it's like trying to stop a freight train. Even with the trade for Robert Woods, I think Burks will operate mostly as the Titans' top wideout. He's not just going to catch passes out wide, he'll motion inside and take handoffs and jet sweeps. He will do a lot of things on this offense and it will be even harder to defend it when other teams have to also compensate for the monster that is king Henry in the backfield as well. Burks is a candidate for over 800 yards receiving and maybe another two to three hundred on the ground. His role intrigues me a lot to the point where I think he has a top 3 shot at bringing home OROY! 

2. Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions

If we knew for sure the injury status of Jameson Williams, his ranking could be a lot different on this list. If he makes it back for week 1 like some are saying, I'd move him up to my top spot. If he's going to miss time, he could fall out of the top 5. The thing is with Williams, whenever he DOES return, he's likely to be the best offensive player from this class. When healthy, this guy is straight up electric. Some say they've seen him run forty times in the 4.2s! That's crazy. Factor in he's also 6'2 which would make him one of the fastest and tallest wideouts in the league. Looking at the year 1 success from Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose to say Williams can't outdo that. He probably can DOUBLE it with his skill. He racked up over 1500 yards and double digit TDs last season. Williams is going to be an absolute problem in the NFL and is a major favorite in my eyes to win rookie of the year!

1. Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pittsburgh Steelers

This may come as a surprise to some, but Kenny Pickett takes home my top spot in terms of early rookie of the year favorites. Citing what I talked about earlier with Corral, it's the same with Pickett, but better. I have a great feeling that the only first round QB taken, who was labeled by many as the only QB in the class ready to be a day 1 starter, will win the week 1 starting job against Turnover Trubisky that is also on the roster. If Pickett secures the day 1 job, I'm not saying he is going to take the league by storm or anything, but he should instantly be a plus starter in the league. His accuracy + mobility will be a luxury the Steelers haven't enjoyed in years and he will thrive with the great offense around him. I could see him having a rookie year similar to that of Mac Jones in 2021, and Jones was the runner-up for ROY to Ja'Marr Chase...