Very Early NFL Playoff Predictions 2022-23 (Post Schedule Release)
With the schedule having officially released, we are now able to really predict records for each team. There is a great website tool https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL that easily allows you to pick the winner of every game and then it sort of does all the tiebreakers and whatnot for you and allows you to see who would make the playoffs and who wouldn't. Using this, I went through and picked every game up until crowning a 2022-23 Super Bowl champ! Here is how it all turned out;
NFC:
#1 Seed (1st-rd. BYE): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5)
With Tom Brady returning and the Buccaneers' front office doing an amazing job of keeping pretty much everyone else while also adding some new difference makers, the Bucs look to be my top team in the NFC in 2022. We all know this offense is going to be hummin' with Brady and OC Byron Leftwich working with one another again. The addition of slippery WR3 Russell Gage will make the offense that much better. On defense, expect even more improvement. DC Todd Bowles was promoted to HC and this team will live and die by playing stout defense. It's going to be hard to take down this Brady-led team (especially with Brady in his likely final year).
Losses: @ Saints, @ Steelers, vs Ravens, @ Browns, vs Bengals
Boom! This might be a shocker! The Eagles who were arguably the most improved team of the off-season look to make a massive jump from a wildcard team to a top 2 seed in the conference. They have a manageable schedule and feel like the most reliable team right now in an unpredictable NFC East. So much hinges on third-year QB Jalen Hurts. If he can make another jump this season with AJ Brown now in the fold on the offense, this team is going to be trouble. Their defense is so improved with additions of Haason Reddick, Nakobe Dean, Jordan Davis, and more. I can't wait to see how this team plays, and as of now I have them taking the NFC East and the no. 2 seed in the conference.
Losses: vs Jaguars, @ Cardinals, vs Cowboys, vs Commanders, vs Saints
#3 Seed: Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
This could be a major surprise here. Many have the defending champs right back out there as the overall favorites and the likely no. 1 seed in the NFC. I see it differently. They have a GRUELING schedule. I thought I gave them fair wins and losses and they still wound up with 7. It doesn't feel right until you see the gauntlet they face. All they need is to get in. This team is built for the post-season with stars everywhere and they even added more All-Pro caliber talent this off-season with LB Bobby Wagner, WR Allen Robinson, and more. Matt Stafford is going to be ready for another huge season with Cooper Kupp and Jalen Ramsey + Aaron Donald still might be the best defensive duo in football. As a #3 seed, no one will want to face the Rams.
Losses: vs Bills, @ Cardinals, vs 49ers, @ Buccaneers, @ Saints, @ Chiefs, vs Broncos
#4 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (10-7)
This one even shocked ME! I felt like I wasn't too kind to the Vikings but even then they wound up winning this division (tiebreaker with GB at 10-7). Is this really possible? Yes! The Vikings are quietly a very good roster with not too bad of a schedule at hand. The Packers on the other hand got significantly worse this off-season with the loss of star WR Davante Adams, top complimentary option MVS, and OC/QB coach Nathaniel Hackett. Their offense is going to regress a bit. While I think this division will come down to the final week, the Vikings appear to come out slightly on top due to all my picks. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are two of the best offensive players in the league, they will carry this team to the division title!
Losses: @ Eagles, vs Lions, @ Saints, @ Commanders, vs Cowboys, vs Colts, @ Packers
The Saints are becoming my favorite dark-horse team for the upcoming season. They quietly had an amazing off-season and now feel like a deep NFC playoff contender. No one is talking about how good Jameis Winston was playing for them last year before the injury. He will be back and better than ever with new weapons at his disposal. He was ballin' last year with Marquez Callaway as his no. 1 WR. Now he has Chris Olave, Jarvis Landry, and Michael Thomas (hopefully) along with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram out of the backfield. The Saints also built up the defense quite a bit, adding stud safeties in Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye. I think they will push Tampa for the division and feel like a dangerous team, even with a new HC (who I love for them by the way!)
Losses: vs Bengals, @ Cardinals, vs Raiders, vs Ravens, @ Buccaneers, @ Browns
#6 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (10-7)
Despite an off-season filled with turmoil, the Cardinals are returning pretty much everyone from last season and will look to build on a season that began with so much promise. Kyler Murray was frustrated with the team but after they brought in Hollywood Brown (his college BFF) and stud rookie TE Trey McBride along with re-signing Zach Ertz and James Conner, he seems to be content once again. The Cardinals defense still remains iffy in my eyes, especially after losing Chandler Jones, but this offense is going to be lethal all year long (even with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first 6 games). The Cards can hang with anyone and have a chance to win any game, we will see if they can stay consistent which has been so hard for them in recent years.
Losses: vs Chiefs, @ Raiders, @ Vikings, vs Seahawks, @ Rams, vs Chargers, vs Buccaneers
Just barely snagging the final wildcard spot is none other than the reigning no. 1 seed in the NFC the Green Bay Packers. There is going to be some regression for this team. There just has to be. You can't lose the best wideout in football along with your OC/QB coach and still run up the points like usual. Aaron Rodgers is otherworldly but if this offense did not miss a beat I would be SHOCKED. Still, I can easily see the Packers winning the division again (they just barely didn't in my game picks today via a tiebreaker with the Vikings). Green Bay right now feels like a team that could underperform in the regular season but be that low seed no one wants to face because that is when Aaron Rodgers plays at his best. Their defense is getting better, but with their offense getting worse, how will Rodgers do at age 38 with a rookie second-rounder as his top wideout?
Losses: @ Vikings, @ Buccaneers, @ Commanders, @ Bills, @ Eagles, @ Bears, vs Rams
The rest of the NFC (outside the playoffs):
8. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
9. Washington Commanders (10-7)
10. Seattle Seahawks (7-10)
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-11)
12. Detroit Lions (6-11)
13. New York Giants (4-13)
14. Chicago Bears (2-15)
15. Atlanta Falcons (1-16)
16. Carolina Panthers (1-16)
AFC:
#1 Seed (1st-rd. BYE): Buffalo Bills (14-3)
Not much of a shocker here. The Bills are my top team in the AFC and the top team in the overall NFL! While their schedule is no cake-walk, I don't expect them to have much trouble rolling over juggernauts left and right with their team. Let me list you the areas of this team that I'd give an A+ to: QB, WR, TE, Defense (as a whole), coaching staff, front office...
Literally pretty much their entire team is A+. It is so hard to find any issues with this roster and places to try and exploit as an opponent. Josh Allen is only getting better and so is this elite defense. The Bills are going to roll through the regular season with their eyes on the crown jewel of the sport that this franchise has been so deprived of.
Losses: vs Titans, vs Vikings, @ Patriots
Here's a fun one! I am so high on the Colts going into the new season! First of all, they are by far and away the best team in their division. That's a lot of winnable games right there. Aside from that, the Colts do not have a crazy hard schedule. Sure, I have them beating some great teams, but their ceiling is very high due to their schedule. The Colts are going to be a playoff team in 2022 with finally a great QB under center to command an ultra-talented offense. With Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and an awesome offensive line at his disposal, Matt Ryan is going to soar and take this team with him. The defense is the strongpoint of this club and we haven't even mentioned it yet. With that defense and the most stout running game in the league along with a battle tested veteran QB/HC duo, the Colts are the kind of team you can see winning games in January. Don't be shocked that they are the 2 seed here.
Losses: @ Jaguars, @ Broncos, @ Titans, @ Raiders, vs Eagles
#3 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
While I think the Bengals are a little better than the Colts, they lose the tiebreaker here and are the #3 seed behind the Colts at #2. The Bengals are ready to be back and even BETTER than last season's magical team. Joe Burrow is only getting better, and now we will finally get to see just how dominant he can be behind a really good offensive line. The team brought back all of its weapons (outside of TE CJ Uzomah) and improved big time on defense. With everyone being another year more experienced and the talent they added, the Bengals are going to be a scary scary team and we know we can never count them out of games which adds even more to it. Fear the jungle!
Losses: @ Ravens, @ Browns, @ Steelers, @ Patriots, vs Bills
While I'm not sure I even agree with them being the best team in that loaded division, that is the fun part about using the regular season schedule. It's not just about who you like the best but it plays out based on who these teams play and actually beat head to head. Just barely, the Chiefs figure to lead the pack of their gauntlet division. While this offense may not be as explosive as it was last year, the front office did a great job with instantly bringing in star talent to replace the irreplaceable Tyreek Hill. Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Justyn Ross as a combination might just do the trick. Aside from losing Hill and also the Honey Badger, the Chiefs added stud pieces like CB Trent McDuffie, DE George Karlaftis, and S Justin Reid. Anyone who is seriously worried about the Chiefs needs to look the other way, they are going to be just fine and back to their old contending ways (they have Patrick frickin' Mahomes!)
Losses: vs Chargers, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, vs Bills, @ Bengals, vs Broncos
#5 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
While I'm usually not the biggest Ravens fan there is, and I was down on them going into the off-season, they did an amazing job this off-season that can't be overlooked. While I didn't agree with them trading away their one playmaking WR in Hollywood Brown, they aced the draft and free agency and are going to be oozing with talent again this season. With everyone returning to health, the Ravens should be in line to return to their dominant-selves again, led by a stout running game and stifling defense. Mid-first round pick Kyle Hamilton could have a Micah Parsons level impact out of the gate. He isn't quite as good as a pass rusher, but he does pretty much everything else on the defense that one could ask for. The Ravens will be a team that no one wants to host in round 1.
Losses: @ Patriots, vs Bills, vs Browns, @ Jaguars, vs Steelers, @ Bengals
While Denver "led" the division for much of the mock-season, they give up the lead to the Chiefs at the end of the year just barely and lose the tie-breaker for the division. However, they can't be sad. This loaded division is going to be airtight. As long as they get into the playoffs, anything can happen. All of these AFC West teams are virtually bound to split their series’, making the tiebreakers that much crazier. Even as a 6 seed, this Denver team has serious Super Bowl potential. Russell Wilson hasn't been the QB of a pass-first team really EVER, so this could be him finally being fully unleashed. Denver plays great defense and is set to even finally be great on offense this year. Just like Baltimore, they are a nightmare first round opponent for host teams in the conference.
Losses: @ Seahawks, @ Chargers, @ Jaguars (London), @ Ravens, vs Chiefs, vs Cardinals
#7 Seed: Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Again, this is the fun part about using the schedule to make my playoff ranks. In my power rankings from last week you will see that I listed the Chargers as the highest ranked team in the AFC West, yet here they are as the #7 seed and the third AFC West team into the post-season. It's all about the other games! In this prediction, ALL FOUR of the AFC West teams finished 11-6 and the tiebreakers set the order this way. The Raiders literally finished with the same 11-6 record but find themselves missing the playoffs! It is going to be crazy. In my eyes, there is no way that this Charger team can miss out this time around. They are maybe the most talented team in the NFL. Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and a great young OL highlighted by RaShawn Slater and Zion Johnson on O. Joey Bosa, Derwin James, JC Jackson, Khalil Mack, Asante Samuel Jr, and MORE on defense. This group can play stifling defense while dropping 40 on anyone. Even as a #7 seed, this could be the AFC Super Bowl favorite!
Losses: @ Browns, vs Chiefs, @ Raiders, @ Colts, vs Rams, @ Broncos
The rest of the AFC (outside the playoffs)
8. Las Vegas Raiders (11-6)
9. Cleveland Browns (10-7)
10. New England Patriots (9-8)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
12. New York Jets (8-9)
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10)
14. Tennessee Titans (6-11)
15. Miami Dolphins (5-12)
16. Houston Texans (3-14)
Wildcard Bracket (based on projections)
NFC:
Saints (#5 seed) over Vikings (#4 seed)
Rams (3) over Cardinals (6)
Packers (7) over Eagles (2)
AFC:
Chiefs (4) over Ravens (5)
Bengals (3) over Broncos (6)
Chargers (7) over Colts (2)
Divisional Round
NFC:
Saints (5) over Rams (3)
Buccaneers (1) over Packers (7)
AFC:
Bengals (3) over Chiefs (4)
Bills (1) over Chargers (7)
NFC:
Buccaneers (1) over Saints (5)
AFC:
Bengals (3) over Bills (1)
Super Bowl 57
BENGALS over Buccaneers
Final Thoughts:
In a wild post-season filled with toss up game after toss up game, I'm taking the Bengals to avenge their close SB loss last season and come out victorious in the end here! Joe Burrow proved too much to me last post-season for me to vote against him when he now has actual protection along with a defense getting better and better. The Bills/Bengals AFC title game would be a game for the ages and was so hard hard to predict, but I'm picking the known Burrow entity factor to pick Cinncy there. The Bucs were an easy pick in my opinion to make it to the big game but picking Brady or Burrow was so hard. It is likely Brady's last year and I wanted to pick him to go out on top so badly, but Burrow (and Chase) is that guy. I just feel like Burrow feels like that rare figure that can beat Brady in the Super Bowl. Only Eli Manning and Foles have done it. I've said it before that Burrow has Brady potential, and this can be the sort of passing of the torch. I'm just simply in love with this Bengals passing attack and think the Bucs would not be able to stop it, coupled with how good their defense is. This would be a close game in the 20s and I think it would come down to a Burrow SB winning drive with an Evan McPherson kick for the win! Burrow and McPherson become the new Brady and Vinatieri!
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