Head Coaching Primer 2023: Who is Out Next after Hackett?
The is one of my favorite annual articles. Last season at this same time of year I wrote an article trying to predict more coach firings and also listing a bunch of logical candidates to be elevated to HC's in this rapidly approaching hiring cycle. So far we've already seen multiple coaches fired in Carolina's Matt Rhule and Indianapolis' Frank Reich mid-way through the year and now Denver's Nathaniel Hackett. There are more on the horizon. First I will go through each of the hot seat coaches and make a prediction on whether or not they will be fired and then we will go into some candidates!
HOT SEAT COACHES (and will they be fired or not)
What a disaster of a first year it has been for McDaniels and the Raiders. A playoff team one season ago, this team never looked like that same contender we all believed them to be and at times we have wondered how they could be THIS bad. At 6-9 obviously it COULD be worse, but with the expectations for this team, it is quite disappointing to see how far they have fallen. McDaniels fells like the clear problem here, but he seems to have won over the ownership. While the entire NFL world is clamoring for McDaniels to be fired, it feels like the Raiders are going to give him another year to prove himself. // PREDICTION: While McDaniels deserves to be fired, the team will give him one more year
Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
Another HC hired in the hiring process of last off-season. Dennis Allen is currently in his second chance as a head coach (after he was the head man in Oakland once upon a time). His second stint as a head coach has not gone according to plan. The Saints are 6-9 and have had some really low moments. The expectations were high coming into the year and there has not been a time when it has looked like they could fulfill those. Still, the Saints have won two straight and are technically still alive in the NFC South race. Given that and his good relationship with the organization, I believe Allen should and will give another year to prove it. The only way I see Allen being fired is if Sean Payton wants to return to NOLA as HC (which is possible). // PREDICTION: Allen will get one more year to prove it
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
The third coach on the hot seat is yet again, another guy in his first year on the job. Eberflus should be and likely will be safe. Everyone knew this Bears team was not going to be good and the moves they made following his hire proved that they knew this would be a rebuilding year. In fact, despite sitting at an awful 3-12 right now, I think the Bears have looked BETTER than I would have expected. Eberflus has found a way to usher on the development of QB Justin Fields which is huge for this franchise. I think Eberflus has a long leash right now. // PREDICTION: Eberflus is completely safe and probably has 1+ years to prove himself still
This feels like the next domino that will fall to me. I do not see a chance that Kingsbury is retained in Arizona. It was odd when he pulled off the 'upset' to get the job a few years back over some much more highly qualified candidates and since then he has been getting arguably worse every single year. To make matters worse, it seems like his relationship with franchise QB Kyler Murray is seriously strained. Due to the financial commitment to Murray the Cards have, even if they wanted to pick Kingsbury over him, they really couldn't. This firing could happen at any moment now. // PREDICTION: Kingsbury is fired following week 18
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
This name popping up on the list may shock some people, but I think Brandon Staley is still on the hot seat even with the Chargers clinching playoffs. This Charger roster is arguably a top 3 most talented roster in all of the NFL, and yet Staley has not been able to get this group to come close to reaching their Super Bowl contending potential. I could see the Bolts getting blown out in the wildcard round and Staley potentially getting canned. This one could go either way, if it were up to me I'd fire Staley and look for someone better. // PREDICTION: Staley gets fired following the first round of the playoffs
Lovie Smith, Houston Texans
This is the hardest one to predict yet. I actually give some props to Smith. He was given probably the worst roster in the NFL and yet he has sort of made something of it. The Texans do have the worst record in the NFL at 2-12-1 but it is sort of deceiving. The Texans are not THE worst team in the league and have been competitive in most of their games, especially of late. Still, the Texans shocked the world when they fired their last HC David Culley after just one season, so I wouldn't be shocked if they did the same with Smith this year. If it's me, I'm keeping Smith for the good job he's done this year, but it could go either way. // PREDICTION: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
POTENTIAL RETIREMENTS: Pete Carroll (Seahawks), Sean McVay (Rams), Bill Belichick (Patriots)
PREDICTED HC OPENINGS:
Carolina Panthers (already open)
Indianapolis Colts (already open)
Denver Broncos (already open)
Los Angeles Chargers
Arizona Cardinals
Obviously all the teams listed above could fire their guys too and add to this list ^
HEAD COACHING CANDIDATES
(58 years old)
The ultimate wildcard in the upcoming head coaching carousel is Sean Payton. The former Super Bowl winning HC and offensive mastermind feels like a lock to return to coaching in 2023 after a year off for personal reasons. Rumor has it that he is already assembling an 'all-star' staff around him that could include elite former DC Vic Fangio. If Payton returns, every team will make a play for him. One added wrinkle here is that he is still technically under contract in New Orleans so a team who hired him would also have to arrange a trade with the Saints to secure him. While I think him going to Denver, Los Angeles, or Arizona would be a home-run for all parties involved, I wouldn't rule out a return to New Orleans for Payton as well.
The top dog on everyone's board likely is DeMeco Ryans of the 49ers. The former multi-time Pro Bowler and one time All-Pro has become the best coordinator in the NFL in 2022. His San Francisco defense is by far and away the best defensive unit in the NFL and arguably since the 2015 Seahawks or 2018 Broncos. There was a stretch of over a month during this season where the Niners did not allow a single second half POINT. Ryans is the main reason behind this and is going to be the guy everyone is hoping to hire for their vacant HC position. At just 38, Ryans has a whole career ahead of him and is going to be a coach every player can relate to. He will not last long on the 'open market'. I think he'd be an especially great fit in Arizona with their young and hungry roster or Indy with a lot of good building block players in place already.
Steve Wilks, Current Interim HC, Carolina Panthers (53 years old)
Another interesting story in the head coaching process is Steve Wilks. The former Cardinal head coach who has been in Carolina for the past few years as a coordinator has done an exceptional job as the interim for the team. The Panthers who were deemed lost at the mid-season have burst back into the playoff race under Wilks. At 6-9, the Panthers are just one game back of the NFC South division lead and they play the division leading Bucs this weekend where they could take a playoff spot. If Wilks can lead THIS team to the post-season, there is no doubt he would shed the INTERIM tag in Carolina. Even if this team narrowly misses the post-season, it is feeling more and more likely by the week that Wilks is going to keep the job in Charlotte. In the event that Carolina goes another direction, Wilks will still be a top candidate for other teams' vacant HC spots.
(56 years old)
Here's a guy who has worked his way up from being an unknown in NFL circles to now a top candidate to become a HC in this next hiring cycle. Anarumo has turned the Bengals' defense from a bottom feeding unit a few years ago into an easy top 10 defense that was a major part in the team's Super Bowl run last year. This year, the defense is playing even better and it has Anarumo being discussed for a HC position. Even with a true superstar on his defense, this unit has been one of the best in the league for multiple seasons now. I'd be more surprised if he DIDN'T wind up as an HC in the coming weeks than if he DID. I could see him being a really good fit in Indianapolis.
Eric Bieniemy, OC, Kansas City Chiefs (53 years old)
In this article LAST off-season, I said "It's getting ridiculous. Beiniemy has been a top candidate every single year for like 5 years now and is still yet to get a HC gig." Now make it SIX years that Bieniemy has been shut out from leading a team. I've heard rumors that he is not a great interviewer but MAN, his resume speaks for itself. He has been the man in charge of coordinating one of the best offenses in the NFL for years now. The Chiefs offense has not missed a beat this year, even with Tyreek Hill gone. That is just another testament to how good Bieniemy is. With teams like Denver, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Arizona especially being desperate for offensive success, I could see this finally being the year that Bieniemy gets his shot. If he doesn't, he will be right back at the top of this list again next off-season.
Leslie Frazier, DC, Buffalo Bills (63 years old)
The one and only real knock I have against Frazier being considered for an HC job is his age. 63 is definitely on the older side to hire as a head coach, but if anyone can swing it, it would be Frazier. It has been years since he fizzled out in his first HC opportunity in Minnesota, and now he deserves a second chance. Frazier has been the Bills' DC for years now and they have routinely been a top 5 defensive unit. This guy knows how to coach and deal with players as well as anyone. I could see him being a target in Denver or Indy as both teams are probably in the market for a proven leader.
(52 years old)
After being the Assistant Coach of the Year in 2021-22 by turning around Dallas' defense, Quinn has done as good of a job again in the same position in 2022-23. He was very very close to being named the Broncos' HC last off-season and now he feels like the arguable front-runner. With Seattle connections to Russell Wilson, he could be the perfect leader for this franchise to get back on track. I could see him assembling a staff of other coaches familiar with Wilson and Seattle to try and fix this mess. If not Denver, I can imagine he will be a top candidate for pretty much all of the other openings.
Shane Steichen, OC, Philadelphia Eagles (37 years old)
After fizzling out for the Chargers as an offensive assistant to Anthony Lynn, the 37 year old Steichen has found new life in Philly. In his two seasons as the OC under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles have been soaring, especially this year. Steichen is commanding this offense to dominance (whether Jalen Hurts is in the lineup or not). This work will not go unnoticed around the league and I can see him being the front-runner for multiple jobs. His young age is another bonus that teams will be attracted to. I could see the Chargers being interested in him returning, but this time as HC, but I could also see him going to Arizona to try and work with Kyler Murray.
Frank Reich, Former Colts HC (61 years old)
A name that I feel like is going underrated in these early stages already is Frank Reich. Reich was fired as the Colts' HC at the mid-season but should be a top candidate for another job right away. Reich was a pretty darn good HC for Indy for years and an even better play caller. He also has SB winning experience in Philadelphia and is a bit of a QB whisperer. I could again see Denver being interested, as Reich could maybe fix Russell Wilson but also the Chargers and Cardinals who have young QBs who could use an offensive HC helping them out.
Don't think we forgot about what Rich Bisaccia did at the end of last season for the Raiders. This is the guy who filled in as the interim HC and led these Raiders to one of the most improbable playoff berths in years. After ultimately being passed over for the job in favor of Josh McDaniels, Bisaccia took a job with Green Bay to be the Special Teams Coordinator. Now a year later, he still may have a shot to become an HC again based off of his work a season ago. I could see any team with an opening right now being attracted to his leadership and years of experience in the NFL. If the Raiders job suddenly does come open again, there could be a potential reunion there as well!
Kellen Moore, OC, Dallas Cowboys (34 years old)
Moore was one of the top HC candidates last season but ultimately slipped through the cracks and returned to Dallas as the OC. In his second season on the job, Moore has arguably been even better as the playcaller for America's Team and is going to have some more serious interest throughout the league. It feels like the league is shifting from older, defensive coaches to guys in their thirties who are amazing offensive play-callers. Moore fits that bill and feels like a good fit for Denver, LA, or even Carolina.
(41 years old)
An interesting 'dark-horse' in this cycle has to be Ejiro Evero of the Broncos. Despite their lost season, Evero has done a masterful job commanding this defense to still being one of the league's top units in his first year on the job. At 41 years old, Evero is going to be a very attractive candidate for certain teams. I can't see him remaining in Denver so I assume someone will give him a chance as their HC or he will become a very sought after DC for another team in hopes he can move up the ladder to HC a season from now.
Other potential candidates:
-Ben Johnson (OC, Lions)
-Brian Callahan (OC, Bengals)
-Pep Hamilton (OC, Texans)
-Jonathan Gannon (DC, Eagles)
-Byron Leftwich (OC, Buccaneers)
-Jerod Mayo (LB coach, Patriots)
-Shane Waldron (OC, Seahawks)
-Jim Harbaugh (HC, Michigan)
-Luke Getsy (OC, Bears)
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