Official Super Wild Card Weekend Game Picks: Cowboys Bounced in R1 Again? Geno Still Not Writing Back?

 I've been waiting all week to post this! The most fun time of the year to be a football fan, the playoffs, and now getting to predict the games on SUPER wildcard weekend, which makes it even more fun with the 6 games instead of just 4 in the old format. We will see two games Saturday, 3 Sunday, and one on Monday night as well. How many favorites will I have advancing? Do I see the Jags or Bucs pulling off the home upset? Find out here, and tomorrow I will have my FULL playoff bracket prediction out as well!

Last Week's Record: 12-4 (my best record of the season!)
2022 Season Overall: 152-101-2 (.601)

SATURDAY

7 Seattle Seahawks (9-8) at 2 San Francisco 49ers (13-4) [4:30 pm ET]

Starting the weekend off with a bang! We have one of the best rivalries in the NFL squaring off for the THIRD time this season. The Seahawks lost both games in the season series against the Niners, which is a first in a long time, but neither game was the necessary BLOWOUT that many have foreseen before each and every match-up. Heading into this game, the Niners are 9.5 point favorites on most books and some are even higher. Vegas is writing Geno Smith off. There are a lot of interesting things to look for here. The Niners are arguably THE hottest team in the NFL, winning 11 straight to end the year, but how will rookie 7th round QB Brock Purdy fare in his first playoff game?

The weather is reportedly calling for HEAVY rain and possibly 20+ mph winds. This could be a kicking and throwing nightmare, and both teams may have to rely on the run. This bodes well for BOTH sides, as both teams have electric run games. Ken Walker has run for 100+ yards in three straight games while Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell form arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league right now. While I expect Geno Smith to be able to operate this offense well, this Niner defense just scares me too much. I think this is going to be a close close game, unlike many others, but I can't bring myself to put Seattle on top. I think this could be less than a 7 point final score, but I'm taking the Niners to hang on as they are at home and have that defense when things go wrong. However, the weather, and a suddenly hot Seattle defense is going to make this one more interesting than people think. 

Score Prediction: Niners 28, Seahawks 26

5 Los Angeles Chargers (10-8) at 4 Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) [8:15 pm ET]

This might be the best match-up of wildcard weekend. This is just such a fun one that could go either way. These two teams are both very young and could be the class of the AFC for years to come. Both teams are red hot entering the playoffs. Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence in both of their first playoff starts (probably of many). How could it get much better than this? On many sites, the spread is close as can be. The Chargers are favored by 2.5 points as the not so uncommon 5 over 4 road favorite. Still, this one could go truly either way, and it is going to be a fun one.

The shock has to be that Trevor Lawrence has been the better QB than Justin Herbert this season. The stat sheet proves it, but also just a playmaking standpoint too, Lawrence has been making plays happen left and right. Roster-wise, the Chargers are more stacked. LA's firepower on both sides is matched by few in this league, but they have been unable to maximize their full potential all year long. Not to mention, the Jags D has been feasting of late. Their D-lineman have come to play and are sacking opposing QBs in bunches and forcing turnovers in every way possible. Josh Allen and Travon Walker have formed one of the best young pass rushing duos in football, and they should feast against a banged up Charger OL. This game is going to be a shootout. I think the defenses will be held irrelevant for much of this game, with Travis Etienne and Austin Ekeler on either side at RB, and then Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen at WR too. However, if it comes down to it at the end, I can see the Jags' defense making a key stop where the Chargers can't. Watch out for S Rayshawn Jenkins who has come into his own on the Jag D. Much more than the Seahawk game, this one TRULY could go either way and feels so 50/50, however, the Jags are the hotter team on both sides and at home, I'm takin' em. 

Score Prediction: Jaguars 31, Chargers 28

SUNDAY

7 Miami Dolphins (9-8) at 2 Buffalo Bills (13-3) [1 pm ET]

I'm not even going to sugarcoat this one. There are two EASY picks this WC weekend and this is one of them. The Bills will not lose this game. I have some regret in that statement as this would have arguably been the game of the weekend if Tua Tagovailoa was able to go, but he isn't, nor is backup Teddy Bridgewater, meaning it will once again be the unproven rookie Skylar Thompson as the signal caller as the team travels to upstate New York. The Bills on the other hand rebounded extremely well from the Damar Hamlin situation with a huge, emotional victory on Sunday against the Patriots. They are amped up and could ride this surge of emotion all the way to the Super Bowl it feels like. They are also starting to get the healthiest they've been since the beginning of the year.

A part of me so wants to give the Dolphins a shot here, but this is gonna be ugly. Thompson was barely serviceable at home in perfect conditions against the lowly Jets last weekend, how will he fare in a playoff atmosphere in the frozen tundra of Orchard Park? Not to mention, the Bills are 10x the Jets right now. Josh Allen is going to ball out against this porous Miami defense and aside from maybe a big play or two out of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, this isn't going to be much of an offensive performance at all for Miami. Props to them for making it here, but the road ends in Buffalo for Mike McDaniel and company. I would hammer the Bills' -13 line here.

Score Prediction: Bills 33, Dolphins 16

6 New York Giants (9-7-1) at 3 Minnesota Vikings (13-4) [4:30 pm ET]

Is an upset brewing in Minneapolis? The public seems to think so. These hot and cold Vikings do not have a lot of faith in them heading into Wildcard weekend. We have seen the Vikings with some of the craziest highs AND lows of the 2022-23 season. Minnesota took down the Bills in OT in an instant classic earlier in the year. They came back down THIRTY THREE points on the Colts and won. They have also been blown to shreds by both the Cowboys and Packers at times this season. We have never quite seen 1-score game luck like Minnesota, and having won ELEVEN one score games this year, it is safe to say they have really had the ball bounce right for them. The Giants on the other hand have been consistent at their craft all year long. While their record suggests they are an average team, they have been playing a lot better of late. Just a few weeks ago they pushed this same Viking team to the brink, before losing on a 61-yard field goal for the win by Greg Joseph. These Giants win with stout defense and a run first offense that minimizes risk of turnovers.

That, what I just said, is a recipe to taking down the Vikings. The Vikings seem to always get a ball bounce the right way for them, or something like that. Still, this team has proven to be turnover happy in games against quality opponents. To Minnesota's dismay, Kirk Cousins is a way below average QB in this time slot (for whatever reason). That is no fluke either, he consistently plays like shit in this window. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones has been on fire lately, finding an unlikely connection with first year Giant Isaiah Hodgins ,who is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. I think this is going to be a back-and-forth, close game all the way through, but with the elite ball control running game of Saquon Barkley and the porous Viking D, GIVE ME THE GIANT UPSET! Obviously it will be hard to win with Justin Jefferson on the other side, but I think Brian Daboll finds a way to stay winning!

Score Prediction: Giants 27, Vikings 23 

6 Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at 3 Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) [8:15 pm ET]

The NFL should not have made this the primetime game of day 2. This is the second game (Bills over Dolphins) that I already think is in hand. These two teams met last weekend, in the same venue, and the Bengals rolled to a victory. There is no reason to think otherwise, especially with how we know Joe Burrow kicks it up even another notch when the lights are brightest. Not only are Burrow and Chase rolling, but lesser-known players on the offense have also been making sneaky impacts of late. WR4 Trenton Irwin has made key plays week in and week out and the healthy again TE Hayden Hurst is a chain-mover. Not to mention how well this defense has played all year. The Ravens do not have good mojo right now. Lamar Jackson is likely out for the season (at least this game) and has his future as a Raven in serious doubt as well. Backup QB Tyler Huntley is in serious jeopardy of missing another game with his own injury. If the Ravens have to turn back to third-string rookie Anthony Brown, the game will be officially over before the ball is even kicked. I have faith in Huntley making it back, but that still doesn't change much for B-more unfortunately.

If the Bengals get out to a hot start, like they tend to do, this one could get out of hand quickly. I think the Ravens D is good and underrated, but we saw them get picked apart by Burrow and Chase last weekend, and I foresee the same thing again. If Huntley plays, maybe this one is slightly closer, but the Ravens are truly in a major funk right now, and this is arguably the worst possible card they could have been dealt (opponent-wise). Bengals roll on to the Divisional round (and much further, you will see in my bracket tomorrow...)

Score Prediction: Bengals 33, Ravens 19

MONDAY

5 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) [8 pm ET]

The NFL did get it right this time, making this game THE primetime game of the weekend as the MNF special. Here we see the overqualified (for a 5 seed) Cowboys on the road as a favorite to take on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. This game is seen as a popular Buccaneer upset pick, and for good reason. While the Cowboys had been hot of late, their last two games have been ugly, especially from QB Dak Prescott, and they are sort of cratering at a bad time. The Bucs did lose on Sunday, but they pulled their starters early and have actually figured out some of their issues that had been haunting them. Tom Brady looks the best he has all year and this defense is figuring it out. Still, for TB to pull off the home upset, it isn't going to be easy.

We all know Dallas has moments of awfulness, and even though they got embarrassed by the Commanders this past weekend, they should be locked in for this game. Dak Prescott leads the league in INTs thrown (even with missed games), but I expect a solid performance out of him nonetheless. I think an early turnover from Dak though could screw Dallas over and dig themselves into a hole. Tampa is a great team playing with a lead, so if Brady and the offense can play well early and the defense can snuff out the Dallas O, this could be a tough one to climb out of for the 'Boys. I could see this going either way, but I'm not picking against a suddenly hot Brady playing a suddenly cold Dallas (who is known for getting bounced early as well). While it was a whole different game back then, the Bucs did find a way to beat the 'Boys in week 1 too, soundly. Better luck next year, Cowboys.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 24

*If all of my predictions hold up, here is what Divisional Round weekend would look like!

NFC:

6 Giants at 1 Eagles
4 Buccaneers at 2 49ers

AFC:

4 Jaguars at 1 Chiefs
3 Bengals at 2 Bills

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Also, for fun at the bottom here, I am making a quick-hit ranking of the 14 starting QBs in the post-season:

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: No one can do the things he can do, and he is suddenly the most veteran QB in the AFC as well. The Chiefs can beat anyone at any deficit because of the unique Mahomes.

2. Joe Burrow, Bengals: Joe Cool, or any other nickname you want to call him, it doesn't matter, because he is going to get it done. No moment is too big for him and you will never find a play where he looks rattled. I can't even say that about Mahomes. He simply just makes all the right throws and decisions. And he's a sneaky runner too...

3. Jalen Hurts, Eagles: Hurts should no longer be HURT when the Eagles take the field a week from WC weekend following their first round bye. Pre his shoulder injury, there was an argument that Hurts was in line for league MVP. His touch and accuracy have improved greatly this season and I don't think there is a more unstoppable ground threat at the position in the entire league. He doesn't throw many picks either.

4. Josh Allen, Bills: Slightly lower than Hurts because of his carelessness with the football at times. At his best, you could put him higher than Mahomes on this list. At his worst, he unravels and turns it over in bunches. There are moments when he gets rattled, but there is not a QB with a bigger arm or more aggressive and hard to take down running style in football. Hurts may be a better overall runner, but Allen is harder to stop. The Bills will go as far as he takes them.

5. Tom Brady, Buccaneers: Sure, he's had a down year by his standards, but the GOAT has been heating up of late and doesn't look like he has really lost much arm strength. This is HIS time of year, and putting a first-time playoff starter over him right now felt criminal. It is crazy to say that a 43+ year old QB of an 8-9 team can't be counted out to win the Super Bowl. That's all because of Brady.

6. Justin Herbert, Chargers: If this was last season, Herbert would probably be in the top 3 or 4, but he has not been AS good as his first two seasons for much of 2022. Still, we know what this guy is. He is one of the most clutch QBs in the game with one of the biggest arms in the game, and he can extend plays as well. In the biggest moments, he seems to get better, and while we haven't seen him before in an NFL playoff game, I assume he will be at his best when he takes the field on Saturday night in Duval county.

7. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: While I said that Lawrence has been better than Herbert in my Jags win prediction above, he is still less proven than the Chargers' signal caller and I'm not ready to say he's actually BETTER than Herb YET. I think if he beats Herbert and carries this stellar play into next season (which he probably will), then there is a real conversation to be had. Lawrence has been on a tear over the last month. His arm strength and touch are in evidence on every throw and his mobility has been a weapon for the Jacksonville offense. Now we see how he fares in a playoff game!

8. Geno Smith, Seahawks: This is an advantage that Seattle HAS to press in the game they are heavy underdogs against. The Niner D has feasted against the 'Hawks all season long, but Geno has to figure it out this third time around. Smith led the NFL in completion % and threw 30 TDs to just 11 INTs on the year. His mobility is also an underrated asset of his game, and I think if he can put that on display on a wet Saturday afternoon in SF, the Hawks will have a shot here. However, if Smith throws an early INT, it could turn into a long day for Seattle.

9. Daniel Jones, Giants: I give Jones a lot of credit. I was one of his biggest haters over the past few years and thought he was a complete bust. He was ranked my 32nd QB in the league multiple times last season. What a turnaround. Jones has always been fast, but he has made his rushing ability a major threat this season. Brian Daboll has given him the keys to run many RPOs and QB design runs and it has worked wonders. Jones is now one of the least turnover prone QBs in the NFL and has figured out how to win. I'm excited for his first playoff start.

10. Brock Purdy, 49ers: Call me crazy for putting the pretty unproven rookie 7th rounder ahead of vets like Dak and Kirk, but what Purdy has done over his first 5 starts is second to few in the history of the league. Purdy is a perfect 5-0, and is yet to have a single play where you say "he's a 7th round rookie, give him a break". He has not even flinched at the challenge. Purdy is a quick decision maker with accuracy and zip on the ball. It helps that he has probably the best supporting cast in football, but if he can keep playing the same way he has, the Niners will go deep in these playoffs. He doesn't turn it over.

11. Dak Prescott, Cowboys: I love Dak and know he is better than this, but he is going to have to prove it. He led the NFL in INTs, even missing multiple games this year, and is in a bit of a recent slump. Still, this is one of the most feared QBs in the league when he's hot. He is one of the most accurate QBs in football and fast as hell. He can make all the off-script throws and plays for Dallas that they need. With the elite cast around him, if he doesn't try and do too much, the Cowboys will be in a good position to win.

12. Kirk Cousins, Vikings: While they have very different athletic profiles and styles of play, Kirk and Dak remind me a lot of each other. They both are very streaky with the potential to be a top 5 QB on any given Sunday, or a bottom 5 one with multiple turnovers. Cousins is a little bit more streaky, and he has these weird tendencies with when the games are played. The Vikings will pray to their lucky stars that the usual 4 pm window Kirk does not show up against the G-men.

13. Skylar Thompson, Dolphins: Unlike the anomaly that Brock Purdy is, Skylar Thompson really really looks like a late round rookie QB. While he is fast and has a big arm, he is so raw, which is why he went late. Thompson lacks the accuracy and touch right now to be a viable starter. The Dolphins will have to hope he can hit some lucky deep shots to Hill and Waddle.

14. Anthony Brown, Ravens: One of the worst starting QBs I've ever seen. UDFA for a reason. (If Tyler Huntley is healthy for the start, I'd swap him with Thompson and have Huntley ranked 13).