Derek Carr to the SAINTS, Geno BACK: Grading Deals + Combine Winners & Losers

 It has been a minute since I released an article, but I wanted to wait until the conclusion of the combine to sort of debrief everything at once as I have a lot of exciting articles to release in the coming days (mock draft 3.0, top 101 free agents, and more)! Today I will be grading some of the recent big moves that have gone on in around the league, such as Derek Carr finding his landing spot, and then also talk about my winners and losers from an eventful weekend in Indianapolis! 

QB Derek Carr signs a 4 year/$150 million contract with the New Orleans Saints
Grade: B+

The first huge QB domino of the off-season fell this morning. We awoke to the news that Derek Carr would be signing with the New Orleans Saints on a 4 year deal that will see him make about $37.5 million a year over each of the next four seasons. First of all for the Saints, amazing work! This is a team that was about to be caught in the middle, with a bunch of win-now players but a lot of holes as well. Whatever happened with the QB position this off-season would determine which way they would go. With Carr signed on to be their QB of the future, it is clear this team is ready to keep on competing. With no premium draft picks and no other truly good options at QB other than Carr this off-season, striking out on him would have led directly to being caught in that dreaded 'middle' position. Carr coming to town instantly makes the Saints the team to beat in an all-time weak NFC South.

For Carr, I am so-so on this deal for him. I think he caught a major W with the fact that he is getting nearly $38 million a season from the Saints, a bit more than I would have expected for a guy who is probably somewhere around the 12th best QB in football, and at this age. I also do like how he heads to the NFC South which is a dumpster fire of a division. The Saints are the clear team to beat here. However, aside from that, I would have much rather seen Carr go to the Jets or even somewhere else. Even if the Saints get into the post-season in a by default manner, it would probably be with a 9-8 or so mark. This team is not close to being Super Bowl contenders. If Carr just cares about making money, then this is a good landing spot for him, but he is in no position to win anything huge in New Orleans for the foreseeable future. Chris Olave is a great WR, but Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara (two stars on the O) have questionable futures in the Big Easy which is not great either for Derek. Still, he will get his money and reunite with Dennis Allen, who was his HC in Oakland when he was drafted. Good for Derek, but he probably will not win any Lombardis in New Orleans. The Saints should be thrilled they lured him in. B+ for me.

QB Geno Smith re-signs with the Seattle Seahawks on a 3 year/$105 million deal
Grade: A-

The only time Smith will write back...on a monster contract extension! That's right, the 'bust' and career backup turned 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year is now a $100 million man! Following his breakout 2022 season in which he threw for 30 TDs, Smith has re-signed with the Seahawks! Fans can rejoice. With all of that being said, there will still be some major skeptics. To be fair, Smith has just the one great year behind him, and so some could worry he could be a one year wonder who is now making $35 million a year. I am not in that boat. Smith was not flashy, but he was damn effective. His style of play will not just drop right off a cliff in one season. In fact, if Smith remains a top 10 QB like he was in 2022, $35 million is an absolute STEAL in this crazy inflated QB market that could see a guy like Daniel Jones getting $40+ million a year soon. For Smith, this deal is a great one, and allows his Seahawks to have cap space to build up the team around him.

The franchise tag for QBs this year is at about $35 million, so Smith is basically getting that, but with the three year deal, the cap hit will be spaced out. Also, the third year on the deal will likely give Seattle an out if needed, when Smith is about 35 years old. This deal leaves all options on the table still for the Hawks going into the off-season. They will have money to lure in some good FAs and will still be in play to potentially draft a QB at pick 5 if they so please. That said prospect (dare I say Anthony Richardson), could sit and learn behind Smith for a year or two and then take over in Seattle. I like this deal so much for both sides, and I am confident Seattle CAN win a Super Bowl with Smith at QB if the right pieces fall into place around him. This is a win-win for Smith and Seattle, and I cannot wait to see him back in action for the blue and green in 2023!

Big names who have been cut in past few days: RB Leonard Fournette, LB Eric Kendricks, LB Bobby Wagner, OT Taylor Lewan, DE Frank Clark, DE Bud Dupree, LB Damien Wilson

With the countdown to free agency opening up, many big name vets have been released by their teams to free up cap space for when that time comes. I will briefly touch on these important vets who will see new teams in 2023. Former Super Bowl starting RB Leonard Fournette was released by the Bucs for cap reasons. The Bucs will likely roll with breakout rookie Rachaad White and possibly a rookie in 2023. Fournette should draw serious interest across the league. Perennial Pro Bowl LBs Eric Kendricks and Bobby Wagner will hit the open market as well, and while both are over 30 years old, both are still playing at elite levels. These two will be very coveted on the open market for contenders. The Titans cut a pair of highly paid starters in former Pro Bowlers Taylor Lewan and Bud Dupree. Lewan will likely get a big time deal from another team, given the emphasis on signing good OL talent. Dupree will likely get a prove-it deal somewhere. Frank Clark, who is near the top of the All-Time NFL Post-Season Sack list, was cut by the Chiefs as they were unable to reach a modified contract. Clark is still just 29 years old and will be one of the best edge rushers available this off-season. The Panthers saved some money by jettisoning 29 year old LB Damien Wilson, who is a great all around 'backer and will have great interest around the league as well.

Trade rumors swirling for All-Pro talents Derrick Henry, Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Jackson

Every off-season there are major rumors surrounding the elite players of our game. This off-season feels like it is already taking it up a notch as some of the names being floated around would be absolute blockbusters if seen moved. Derrick Henry is the first, and while it is shocking to hear, it makes a lot of sense. The Titans are clearly blowing it all up and an expensive RB who is right in the midst/end of his prime would make sense to move at his highest value. Imagine if the Eagles were able to acquire him for the 30th pick in the draft. Rams stud elite CB1 Jalen Ramsey appears to be very much on the trade market as well. The Rams themselves are blowing it up a bit and will try and get peak value for Ramsey while they can. Ramsey would likely go for at least a first round pick. Early teams to watch for him appear to be the Lions and Cowboys.

Aaron Rodgers continues to be the center of NFL rumors this off-season. It sounds like while he is yet to publicly state what he wants to do, the Packers do not want him back, which makes things all the more interesting. The Jets are the clear front-runners if indeed Rodgers is to be on the move, but until we hear, we will remain at this standstill. DeAndre Hopkins is another name who we have known is on the block since the very start of the off-season, and a trade seems close. It should only cost about a 2nd rounder to get him at this stage of his career/the contract he has. I have seen that the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, and Cowboys look to be the teams to watch for 'Nuk. Finally, while this would be the most shocking of all potential moves, Lamar Jackson is not safe and sound in B-more right now. It is looking like Jackson is heading towards a franchise tag with the Ravens, and with that, the team could be inclined to move him if a team comes offering the right package. If Jackson is shopped, the Falcons are thought to be the front-runners to make a run at him. 

If I had to rank these players in order from which I think is mostly likely to be moved, to least, here is what I would say

1. DeAndre Hopkins (almost surely gone)
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Jalen Ramsey
4. Derrick Henry
5. Lamar Jackson (much more unlikely)

COMBINE 2023 WINNERS AND LOSERS

WINNER: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

The first winner of the 2023 combine in my opinion was easily UF QB Anthony Richardson. Lately the hype train has been going off the rails for Richardson, as his physical traits make him a potential unicorn in the NFL. He surely put on the show we were all waiting for when he suited up in Indy. Richardson started off by running a BLAZING 4.43 forty yard dash. That is the third fastest recorded time EVER for a QB! Richardson then jumped 40.5" vertically, a new combine QB record! Insanity. That is higher than the likes of a guy like DK METCALF! At 6'4, 245, this guy is the same size as Derrick Henry, yet has insane speed and other athletic attributes. He threw multiple 65 yard bombs in the throwing portion with the simple flick of the wrist. Richardson continues to draw comparisons to guys like Cam Newton and Josh Allen. It is not out of the question that he could go no. 1 in the draft...

WINNER: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

While he is not getting any first round hype or anything, Devon Achane is now a name you really need to know. He was one of the most electric players in all of college football in 2022, and he has pretty much cemented himself as a top 3-4 RB in this class following his combine performance. The 5'9 missile who had over 1,200 yards and 11 TDs on offense last season ran for a BLAZING 4.32 forty time! That is insane for an RB. You almost never seen an RB run that quick. Having this guy as a 3rd down/receiving back in your offense at the NFL would be beyond dangerous. Imagine the Chiefs or Bills having a little X-factor weapon like this to account for out of the backfield. This combine performance may have worked Achane into 2nd round conversations.

LOSER: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

I think Addison is still locked in as a first round WR, but his combine performance did about all it could do to challenge that belief. While I did think Addison looked smooth like he usually does route-running, that was about it. Addison ran a 4.49 forty time which is pretty damn bad for a WR in today's NFL, especially a guy you want to be an elite separator at the next level. Addison's 34" vert wasn't too exciting either. I still think Addison goes in round 1, but this did not help him.

WINNER: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

The former no. 1 recruit in the nation has shown flashes of why he was given that title coming into college throughout his years at Georgia, and he did so again at the combine. The oft-injured Smith is an athletic freak, and he showed that off at the combine. Smith set the Twitter world on fire when he blazed a 4.39 forty time! That is insane! For a DL! The 240 pound Smith has FOUR THREE SPEED! To put that into prospective, a freak like DK Metcalf, who is about 225 pounds, ran a 4.33 forty. That is BARELY faster than Smith, who is a DL with 15 pounds+ on him. Wild. That is just hard for me to even process. Smith also leaped to a 41 inch vertical which is impressive as well! Nolan Smith had been getting fringe first round discussion before the combine, but now he feels pretty much like a day 1 lock if you ask me.

LOSER: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

In an already loaded CB class, Clark Phillips had to do whatever he could to separate himself from the competition, given he is already seen at a disadvantage due to his 5'9, 185 pound frame. He did not help himself at all at the combine, in fact, he has nearly certainly fallen out of 1st-round discussion. Phillips ran an awful 4.51 forty time. Nolan Smith who has 5 inches and nearly 60 pounds on Phillips ran miles better than him. While this speed and frame combination probably will limit him to the slot in the NFL, that isn't a terrible thing if he is well suited for the role, but it should limit the spot in which he is selected pretty largely. 

WINNER: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

This was a guy I KNEW would test freakishly well. Darnell Washington is one of the biggest sleepers in this class, and following his insane combine, he is likely now a first-round TE for sure! Washington, who is 6'7 and 265 pounds, known as the '6th lineman' showed why he is more than just a blocking TE. He BLAZED a 4.65 forty time which is unheard of for that height/weight combination. Washington also showed off his short distance speed as he was first in shuttle for TEs too. That wasn't all, Washington showed off his elite strength at the sleds which O-lineman push, which he did with ease. No other TE even came close to that level of movement and power on the sleds all day long. Look this up online too, because Washington made one of the craziest one-handed grabs, while twisting, that I've ever seen during the receiving portion of the day. It was an all-around insane day for Washington, who is going to be drafted really high, potentially the first TE off the board in a loaded class.

WINNER: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

With Clark Phillips III earlier I said how deep and loaded this class was at the CB position. Gonzalez was a guy on the other hand whose combine helped them leap even higher on draft boards. After the day Gonzalez had, he may have unseated Illinois' Devon Witherspoon for the CB1 title in this class. The day started off great for Gonzalez, who checked in at 6'1, 200 pounds. Exactly the elite length teams have coveted with him so far. Gonzalez then went out and dominated all of the physical drills, blazing a 4.38 forty time at his frame along with an elite 11 foot broad jump and 41.5 vert. Gonzalez looked completely quick and smooth throughout the entire day, and might just be CB1 for sure now as we head closer and closer to draft day!

Other Winners: CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State), Adetomiwa Adebawore (DL, Northwestern), Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State), Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa), Stetson Bennett (QB, Georgia)

Other Losers: Kayshon Boutte (WR, LSU), Andre Carter II (DE, Army), Tank Dell (WR, Houston), Tank Bigsby (RB, Auburn), Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State), *Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)

* = stock down for not participating, allowing others to get ahead that did well