Head Coaching Cycle Preview: Calm before the Storm
One of my favorite annual articles is here. Every year around this time in the season (weeks 16-18) we see teams move on from their current guys and start the process of finding their new head man. We've already seen a number of in-season firings to this point and many more are to come. This feels like an upcoming off-season with a lot more firings than usual. Teams want results. Today we will look at potential open jobs, candidates, and more. This is not a hiring prediction article, which will come in the coming weeks. Lets get into it.
Coaches on the hot seat
Here I will list head coaches I believe are on the hot seat and then my personal prediction as to whether they will be let go or not
This is one that I don't think many people expected to see at the start of this season. While the Patriots have been far from good ever since Tom Brady left down, Belichick is a known top 3-5 head coach of all time and has been with the Patriots for almost 25 years and won 6 rings as the leading man with the team. Now with things as ugly as ever in New England, the sides could very likely agree to go different directions. I think New England's best course of action would be to keep Bill as their coach but relieve him of his GM duties, but I don't see him being good with that, leading to a seemingly imminent breakup. Belichick may be outdated in some ways, but he is nonetheless an amazing leader of men and a defensive mastermind.
PREDICTION: Belichick and the Patriots mutually agree to PART WAYS
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
The writing has been on the wall for some time now in Landover. Ron Rivera has not had much success as Washington's head coach in 4 seasons, and while he has made the playoffs, it was with a losing record. It is a big rebuild in Washington and has been for some time, but they really have seen no progress at all in his time, and have looked lost more often than not. The 61 year old coach is probably in his last days as an NFL HC and while he may come back to another team as a coordinator, I cannot see him getting another shot as a head man, or at least for a long time. With new ownership in DC, there is simply no way they give him more time, as he hasn't shown them really any consistency at all.
PREDICTION: Rivera is FIRED by the Commanders
Even from the standpoint of being a neutral, I am praying the Falcons do what they should here and fire this guy. Arthur Smith might be the worst head coach in the NFL (outside of Frank Reich and Brandon Staley who were already fired). This is a team that has used THREE top 10 picks on some of the most exciting offensive skill prospects over the past 5-10 years in Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Drake London, and Smith is out here forcefeeding guys like Jonnu Smith, Tyler Algeier, and Mack Hollins instead. Talk about not knowing how to use personnel. The Falcons have not done anything since Smith has been around and he is actually getting the least out of his talented guys. If the Falcons can find a QB and at least a half competent head coach, they could be set up for major success in the coming years.
PREDICTION: Atlanta FINALLY FIRES Arthur Smith
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
Kind of a puzzling hire in the first place, Eberflus was a great coordinator in Indianapolis on the defensive side of the ball, but taking over as the head man in a huge rebuild seemed odd. Chicago desperately needed an offensive mind who could take this young and inexperienced offense to new heights. While the Bears have been better down the stretch this season, the team has not really taken the steps forward we expected them to this season, and Eberflus feels like an easy scapegoat. I think Eberflus will quickly be hired as a defensive coordinator elsewhere, but the Bears could look to reset as they still have a ton of cap space and elite draft capital to work with this off-season to try and usher in a new era of Bears football in Chicago.
PREDICTION: Eberflus is FIRED by the Bears
Just like Bill Belichick, it feels really odd writing Mike Tomlin in the hot seat category. While he is YET to post a losing record in over 15 seasons with the Steelers, he hasn't also given them much else of late. He seemingly has the Steelers right around 9-8 every year where they either miss the playoffs narrowly or are an easy first round exit. With the evident struggles on both sides of the ball for a lot of this season, many are calling for Tomlin's head in Pittsburgh. Personally, I would NOT get rid of Tomlin. He is so successful and clearly just such a good leader and coach, and a guy that players love to play for. With that said, I'm not sure what the team might do. Whether the Steelers make a playoff push these final couple weeks or not, I don't think anyone can be sure. My prediction is the Steelers give him another year, but something I don't see out of the question is another team (like maybe Washington) actually trying to TRADE for Tomlin. If a good offer came their way, I think that is how we would see Tomlin out of the Steel City this off-season. If no offers come in, I think he gets at least another year.
PREDICTION: Tomlin's job is SAFE, but a coaching-trade is not out of the question...
Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
Hear me out on this one. Just two weeks ago with the Cowboys fresh off of huge victories in back to back weeks against Seattle and Philly, this would sound crazy, but now after back to back bad losses, Mike McCarthy finds his seat heating up again. The Cowboys feel like a broken record. They are always at about 10/11 wins and feel like an elite team, but they can never make that next step. It felt like Dallas was trending finally towards that next step with Dak looking like the MVP front-runner, but now Dallas has lost two straight and looks primed for another disappointment. McCarthy has done a good job this year, especially taking over as the playcaller on offense, but if Dallas is a round 1 exit again or makes it to the second round just to get blown out again, I think he will be out as HC in Dallas. This is kind of a dark-horse spot here, and while I won't predict it to happen, there's certainly a good chance.
PREDICTION: McCarthy's job is SAFE for another year (pending playoffs)
It just feels like time is up for Dennis Allen in New Orleans. No one really questioned their decision to promote Allen from defensive coordinator to head coach two seasons ago with the sudden (and brief) retirement of Sean Payton. Allen was a defensive mastermind for the Saints, but that has proven to be about it. The Saints have been greatly disappointing in both seasons under Allen and don't seem to be looking any better at all. I think Allen will be coveted around the league as a defensive coordinator, but he has just not really shown any real improvement from his first stint as a head coach years ago with the Raiders. This one feels almost certain.
PREDICTION: Allen is FIRED by the Saints
Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
The final main guy I'll put on the hot seat before my honorable mentions area is Sean McDermott. Similarly to Dallas, the Bills have been known as one of the league's best and most consistent teams over the last couple years, but they are always seemingly one step away from being a true top tier, best of the very best team. McDermott has done a good job over the second half of the season getting this team back on track, but there is still a chance that they don't even make the playoffs. The gruff, defensive minded head coach is old school, and sometimes it feels like it holds this great roster back. Josh Allen could potentially soar to new heights with a young, offensive head coach. If Buffalo fails to make the playoffs, or is easily bounced in round 1 or 2 again, I think it is entirely possible this team moves in a different direction. Right now, I'm not going to predict him to be fired, but know it could very well happen. Any time an offensive coordinator is fired at the mid-season, more big changes at the end of the season are common.
PREDICTION: McDermott's job is SAFE for another year (pending playoffs)
Honorable mentions: Jonathan Gannon (AZ), Robert Saleh (NYJ), Doug Pederson (JAX), Matt LaFleur (GB), Pete Carroll (SEA), Todd Bowles (TB), Sean McVay (LAR)
These guys are all not OFFICIALLY hot seat, but there is at least some chance they are fired following the season. Jonathan Gannon has not been impressive at all for Arizona this year, but he doesn't have much to work with and it feels like he will get at least another year to see what he can do with an improved roster.
Robert Saleh maybe should be fired, but with the injury to Aaron Rodgers, the word on the street is that New York will run it back and see what happens with Rodgers at the helm in 2024.
Doug Pederson is a great coach in my opinion and has turned Jacksonville around in two years, but the recent losing streak and poor play from Trevor Lawrence definitely makes you wonder. I doubt he's fired but it could happen out of left field.
Matt LaFleur's seat is definitely warm as the Packers have not looked great lately, but they could still sneak into the playoffs and even if they don't, I think he gets another year as he has actually had this offense playing quite well with Jordan Love at QB.
Pete Carroll is always an interesting one as he has such a legacy of success in Seattle and is so beloved, but Seattle has been pretty much just barely above average since their Super Bowl days and there's always a chance this team goes in a different direction or Carroll even retires (he's the oldest coach in the NFL).
Todd Bowles' Bucs are streaking right now and look very likely to win the lowly NFC South behind great offensive play by Baker Mayfield, but winning a crapshoot division doesn't ensure job security in my opinion and I even think there's a chance he's fired in favor of current OC Dave Canales if another team is trying to lure him away. Bowles is a defensive minded HC whose defense is the weak-spot of this team.
McVay is ARGUABLY the best HC in the NFL, he has done an unreal job this season keeping the Rams competitive with a bad roster. Even though McVay is so young, he's already accomplished so much including winning a Super Bowl, and he was on the fence about retiring a year ago, so there's always a chance he could retire this off-season, but the Rams will keep him for as long as he wants to stay.
Projected Head Coach Openings
- Las Vegas Raiders (already open)
- Carolina Panthers (already open)
- Los Angeles Chargers (already open)
- Washington Commanders
- New England Patriots
- Atlanta Falcons
- Chicago Bears
- New Orleans Saints
*Anywhere from around 0-9 MORE positions COULD open up, as said above*
Best Potential Head Coaching Candidates
In what some might call a weaker year for coaching candidates, Ben Johnson is a diamond in the rough. Ever since his brilliance in Detroit that really started last season, Johnson has been a known entity that everyone knew would be an NFL head coach one day soon. It is funny that in a year where we could really see more openings than usual, the candidate pool may not be as strong. Time will tell on that one. Back to Johnson, this is an awesome HC candidate here. The 37 year old OC figures to be potentially the next young offensive mastermind in the game. We've seen teams trending towards higher young and bright offensive minds, with a lot of success, and Johnson fits that bill. Just look around: Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel, Kevin Stefanski, Kevin O'Connell, Zac Taylor, Shane Steichen, the list just seems to go on. Detroit has been one of the NFL's best and highest powered offenses, and more impressively has been the career renaissance that Jared Goff has enjoyed under this guy. Teams will be lining up to get Johnson and for good reason. I've heard his asking price is already $10-15 million a year. Who will pony up for a potential difference maker at the head coaching position?
Best Fits: Chargers, Falcons, Panthers
The only way I can see Ben Johnson being unseated as the presumed top dog in terms of head coaching candidates is if the great Jim Harbaugh decides to finally leave the University of Michigan to return to the NFL sidelines. Harbaugh has pretty much turned everything he touches into gold. Stanford football. 49er football. And now Michigan football. With the Wolverines the no. 1 team in college football and vying to win their first title in years, Harbaugh seems to be taking a strong look at coming back to the NFL. If Michigan wins it all, I see no reason for him to return if he really is interested in the NFL. If they don't win, maybe he comes back to go until he gets his title. Either way, if Harbaugh is committed to coming to the NFL, he will have everyone's attention. Harbaugh is an unreal leader of men and really great at crafting A+ staffs around him. He is a QB guru and a gameplanning mastermind. If he comes back to the NFL, he would be an insane get for any team lucky enough to secure his services.
Best Fits: Chargers, Raiders, Bears
Mike MacDonald, Defensive Coordinator, Baltimore Ravens
If the league wasn't trending in such an offensive direction, I think MacDonald would be considered the best candidate in this coaching cycle. Even with it not, he is still an easy top 3 candidate and feels more likely than not to end up a head coach in the NFL within the next couple of months. At just 36 years old, MacDonald is that young, fiery coach that teams are trying to get. It is the trend right now and for good reason. If you get the right young coach, you will have him for potentially decades. MacDonald is dominating in his second season as the team's DC. The Ravens have an easy top 3 defense in the league and he is really getting the most out of his players and scheming up great situational defensive packages. Look at a career journeyman like Jadeveon Clowney for example, who has 8 sacks and counting this year after years of dud production. Kyle Hamilton is another player dominating under MacDonald's scheme. Sure, it might be a tougher sell to bring in a defensive guy as the head man for some squads, but this guy is great. It can work out too, just look at DeMeco Ryans in Houston right now. He has stud head coach written all over him.
Best Fits: Patriots, Raiders, Saints
Here is one of my favorite potential head coaches in this coming cycle. I'm not sure why he is not getting more early hype to be a potential HC. Canales is KILLING it in his first season as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator. The 42 year old former QB coach has been dialing up awesome play calls for the Bucs, and is the main man behind the resurgence of former top pick Baker Mayfield. It isn't just a coincidence either. Comeback player of the year last season Geno Smith finally put it all together in Seattle, who was his QB coach? Canales. Russell Wilson also had some of the best years of his hall of fame career under Canales as the QB coach. Not only has Canales shown he can actually call plays, but he might be one of the best QB gurus in all of football, and at 42, he is damn young too, which is on trend. With so many teams in need of a head coach either trying to get the most out of a stud young QB like Justin Herbert or potentially Josh Allen, a lot of these teams are on the brink of drafting a young signal caller as well. Canales has proven he is an awesome, QB-friendly coach. I hope he gets his well deserved looks to become a head man somewhere for 2024. As I said earlier, I don't see it out of the question that the Bucs fire Todd Bowles to promote Canales.
Best Fits: *Buccaneers, Bears, Panthers, Commanders
The Raiders are really good at picking the right guy to be their interim HC. We all remember the Raiders making a shocking playoff push after firing Jon Gruden at the mid-season a few years back under interim HC Rich Bisaccia. Antonio Pierce is doing similarly good work with the Raiders in 2023. This time though, I think he might actually get the full-time gig, unlike Bisaccia. While Pierce does have a defensive background (most recently LV's LB coach), don't let that scare you away. This man is a pure motivator like Dan Campbell and has his players ready to run through a wall for him. He is just 45 years old and clearly relates to his guys so well. Since taking over as the interim, Pierce and the Raiders have gone 4-3 including statement wins like a blowout over the Chargers and then a major Christmas Day upset over the Chiefs. I truly think Pierce deserves this job, and I think he has a really good chance of winding up with it unless the Raiders maybe had a guy like Jim Harbaugh on the table. If not with the Raiders, I still think he's an all around great candidate for any of the potential openings!
Best Fits: *Raiders, Commanders, Patriots
Bobby Slowik, Offensive Coordinator, Houston Texans
The trend continues on. Here is another 36 year old offensive mind that is rising up the ranks and feels bound to become a head coach either this off-season or next. In his first year with the Texans, Slowik has killed it. He is a huge reason behind the instant success and stardom of rookie QB CJ Stroud. His play-calling has been dynamite and he is getting the most out of an offense that isn't filled with known entities left and right. Slowik has been huge for Stroud and fellow rookie Tank Dell, and he has gotten a lot out of vets like Nico Collins, Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz, Devin Singletary, and others. Teams are certainly going to be quite interested in this wonderkid.
Best Fits: Panthers, Falcons, Commanders
Dan Quinn, Defensive Coordinator, Dallas Cowboys
While Quinn is not on trend with the young offensive coach category, everyone knows how good of an option he could be. Quinn is a former HC who had a lot of success early in Atlanta before fizzling out. He took them to a Super Bowl and won a lot of games in general. He also was the defensive coordinator back in the Legion of Booms days for Seattle. Now after multiple seasons as the DC in Dallas, Quinn feels primed to get a second chance as an NFL HC. I've heard rumors he could stand in and take over the Cowboy HC job if McCarthy's team disappoints in the playoffs again. Even if not in Dallas, he will have tons of interest around the league. His defenses always seem to be top notch and he is a known veteran presence who can really get a lot out of all his players. He was a finalist for multiple team's openings last year but actually wound up staying in Dallas by choice. I don't think he'd do the same this year if given his well-deserved second chance.
Best Fits: *Cowboys, Chargers, Commanders, Panthers
In a year with a potential bonanza of openings, could this be when Brian Flores finally gets his well-deserved second chance as an NFL head coach? Flores was wrongly fired by the Dolphins a couple years back despite a lot of success leading the team. Many thought it would doom their franchise for years to come and while a stupid move like that should have, Miami got really lucky they hit so hard on their Flores replacement in Mike McDaniel. All of that said, Flores is an awesome coach. Since Miami he has done well as a Steeler LB coach and more recently this season as the Vikings' defensive coordinator. While defensive minded coaches aren't the most popular right now, Flores should still be considered a top tier candidate for most vacancies around this league. He is an overall amazing leader and one that players buy into playing for. If he can bring a great OC with him, there is not much better of options on the market. It would not shock me to see the Patriots bring him back as their head coach as Flores began his coaching career as an assistant under Bill Belichick years ago.
Best Fits: Patriots, Panthers, Commanders
Jerod Mayo, Linebackers Coach, New England Patriots
Another young defensive mind from the New England coaching tree. Mayo has been a name people have been watching for multiple years now, and this feels like the year he could finally secure himself a leading man job. The Patriots have been great on defense for years, and Mayo is a big reason as to why. He, like Flores, appears to be a great leader of men and a guy a lot of players deeply respect and would like to play for. With Belichick more likely than not, out in New England, the Patriots could look to simply promote Mayo, who has had more and on his plate for the Patriots over the last couple of seasons.
Best Fits: Patriots, Commanders, Saints
While Smith obviously isn't calling the plays in Miami under Mike McDaniel, he has a lot to do with the extreme offensive success that is happening in South Beach. The 42 year old coach has been great in all of his stops as an assistant over his young career and is reportedly a coach that players LOVE working with. With teams around the league searching far and wide for the NEXT Mike McDaniel, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see a team give Smith the opportunity to be their head coach and hope he can have similar immediate success like McDaniel did with the Dolphins.
Best Fits: Panthers, Commanders, Bears
Seemingly an annual fixture on this list, Eric Bieniemy enters what feels like his hundred-thousandth year of trying to finally become an NFL head coach. It was so puzzling he never got a chance as he was the offensive coordinator behind the league's best offense for YEARS in Kansas City. After all those years of being passed on in KC, Bieniemy decided to get a change of pace and joined the Commanders as their OC this season, hoping he could prove he can succeed anywhere. While 2023 has been a mixed bag for the Commanders and their offense too, Bieniemy has helped himself in my eyes. He didn't have much to work with in DC but got a lot out of young QB Sam Howell and feels so deserving of finally getting a chance as an NFL HC this off-season. With Ron Rivera almost certainly out in Washington, could the Commanders simply promote Bieniemy to HC? Or will he have to go back to shopping around like every other year
Best Fits: *Commanders, Panthers, Bears
The only bad thing I have to say about Anarumo's head coaching prospects are that he is not super young, and he is not an offensive minded coach. Other than that, there are few better candidates around than him. Anarumo has done a masterful job coordinating the Cincy D over the last couple seasons, getting this group to a Super Bowl and multiple AFC title games, and beating Patrick Mahomes 3+ times as well. I wouldn't say the Bengals have the most talented defensive roster in the league, but Anarumo certainly gets the most out of his guys. He is very creative and brings a steadying presence to the room. I would be shocked if he finally gets his HC job this off-season, but he is a great and deserving coach, so it wouldn't be the BIGGEST shocker ever. Anarumo was a finalist for the Cardinal job last year, maybe he can get that final step closer this time around.
Best Fits: Saints, Patriots, Panthers
While Raheem Morris and the Rams defense have not really been all over the NFL news this season or anything, this is a guy who is going to get some HC looks and for good reason. Morris is a young coordinator but to the surprise of some he's actually already had a head coaching opportunity in the past and it feels like it is becoming time again soon for him to get another chance. Morris is one of few coaches in the league that has real experience coaching both the offensive AND defensive sides of the ball. That versatility will interest some teams. Morris is also known as a players coach and a guy with a lot of respect around the league. The Rams defense has been nothing to write home about this season, but they are also not a bad unit at all which is impressive for Morris given the little big-time talent they possess outside of Aaron Donald. Morris will certainly get some interviews and may even wind up a head coach. On the very off chance that Sean McVay retires this off-season, I'd expect Morris to be promoted as well.
Best Fits: Falcons, Panthers, Saints
Best Fits: Patriots, Saints, Commanders
Best Fits: Patriots, Saints, Commanders
Best Fits: Panthers, Falcons, Saints
Comments
Post a Comment